5 Toronto Maple Leafs predictions for 2026
Photo credit: Geoff Burke-Imagn Images
The Toronto Maple Leafs could be poised for an interesting 2026 that shakes up the roster heading into the rest of the season.
2025 was a tale of two seasons for the Toronto Maple Leafs, although with the same challenges. Toronto led the Atlantic Division and second in the Atlantic in points with 108, the Leafs team building some of their best chemistry led by stellar goaltending with the surprise emergence of Anthony Stolarz as the team's starter.
Toronto's postseason ended in heartbreak after Stolarz was injured and the Leafs came close to a 3-0 series lead in the second round against Florida, ultimately losing the series in seven to the Panthers, who went on to hoist the Stanley Cup.
In another dagger, the Leafs lost star winger Mitch Marner, who was dealt in a sign-and-trade to the Vegas Golden Knights in an end to a nine-season tenure in Toronto. The Leafs acquired forward Nicolas Roy in return, but did little in free agency, acquiring reclamation projects in Matias Maccelli and Dakota Joshua as bargain moves.
Toronto's season has been turbulent, to say the least, with the Leafs having been at the basement of the Eastern Conference led by a downturn season for Captain Auston Matthews, but for now rest slightly better at sixth in the Atlantic with an 18-15-6 record and 42 points in an unpredictable and tight-knit east.
The Leafs 2026 will look to be less chaotic and uncertain than 2025, of course with better odds, here are five predictions for Toronto heading into 2026, nothing that feels highly unlikely such as the Leafs acquiring Connor McDavid or trading Auston Matthews, but some takes perhaps hotter than others.
Prediction 1 : The Toronto Maple Leafs make the playoffs
Some people would say this isn't a hot take, but for now it still is. The Toronto Maple Leafs have had an unpredictable season so far led by injuries being a thorn to the side of the Leafs roster, a healthier 2026 should be helpful.
Despite everything, the Leafs are close to full health and are too talented of a team to at the very least not be able to sneak into the playoffs in an Eastern Conference that's been less surprising (another prediction is that the east becomes less competitive by the end of the season).
One additional factor that should be key to the Leafs is Anthony Stolarz returning to the Leafs lineup. Stolarz struggled to replicate his past performance from last season, regressing with a 3.51 GAA and a .884 SV% in 13 games, but doing so playing mostly by himself, with Cayden Primeau a non-factor in net.
The Leafs goaltending will be a key area to watch heading into 2026 and extending into the end of the year as Stolarz's future could be an interesting point of discussion later on.
Prediction 2 : One of Stolarz/Woll/Hildeby gets traded
This is a prediction that feels less likely not for it being unlikely, Toronto trading one of their goalies could be possible, but it's the question mark over Stolarz that adds intrigue into the Leafs plans in net.
Stolarz's struggles haven't made him expendable yet, but if he returns to further suboptimal performances, the future of Stolarz in Toronto could come into question sooner rather than later, especially factoring his salary rising from $2.5M to $3.75M next season, not a large increase in a higher cap ceiling, it's him signed until 2030 that makes more of a challenge.
It's not Joseph Woll that could push him out of the net, although him playing like a starter would be a factor, it's rookie Dennis Hildeby. The 24-year-old has shown himself to be an NHL caliber goalie, rocking a 2.87 GAA and a . 912SV% in 14 games this season since being called up from the Marlies.
Anthony Stolarz struggling to recreate his 2024-25 form and the tandem of Woll and Hildeby continuing to be reliable in net should at the least give Toronto a tough decision.
Stolarz's contract may hurt a potential asking price in a trade, the Leafs could be stuck there, and Woll doesn't seem likely to be dealt unless perhaps for a starter, and Hildeby is supposed to be the future, but he's proven he's good enough to graduate from the AHL, Stolarz could be the odd man out.
Prediction 3 : Leafs don't make a trade deadline splash, do make a deal
The Toronto Maple Leafs are already being reported to be unlikely in terms of making a panic deal and going for a blockbuster, but the Leafs could go after a depth option that helps the roster overall.
Toronto may not get some of the big names they're linked to, although there's holes on both offense and defense, the Leafs don't appear guaranteed to make a deal, although them staying pat at the deadline feels like a surprise, unless they're riding a hot streak come deadline day.
The Leafs rumored «roster-for-roster» trade feels likely, with higher-priced forwards such as Max Domi and Matias Maccelli feeling the most likely scenarios. Brandon Carlo is an outside option, but he's still a reliable defensive defenseman despite struggling offensively.
A blockbuster for a top-line or top-pair forward? Maybe not. But a middle-six forward or second-pair defenseman could make sense, and swapping one of Domi or Maccelli + picks and/or prospects seems sensible for what the Leafs have been hinting is their goal.
Prediction 4 : Auston Matthews has a strong second half, still falls just under PPG
Auston Matthews hasn't found his form this season, but there's reason to think that Matthews can have somewhat of a bounce back and take a leap heading into, even if he doesn't turn back the clock to his 69-goal self.
There is one thing that could keep Matthews from true dominance, and that's Craig Berube's adaptation of Matthews into more of a two-way forward. We could see Berube ease up a bit on Matthews in the second half coming back from injury, and let him play more of his natural offensive role.
Will that make Matthews more of his goalscoring self? He could go that way or focus more on playmaking, although it'll be hard for Matthews to resist wanting to break out and get some goals in a season he hasn't looked at his best.
Prediction 5 : The Leafs don't get of the first round, but have a highly competitive battle
It's something the Toronto Maple Leafs don't want to hear, but a first round exit for the Leafs is quite possible, but they are at least poised to show some fight to the end, and it's not because of no Marner.
The Eastern Conference has been difficult to battle from the start, and even if things ease up, teams have shown they're going to be competitive and relentless.
One prediction, the Leafs make it to seven games, and play a tough game seven, but aren't able to get over the hump.
Some additional smaller 2026 predictions
1) The unsung hero of the Leafs second half? Bobby McMann who establishes himself on the Leafs top-six and provides a reliable offensive presence. On defense, Jake McCabe becomes the Leafs key blueliner.
2) Nick Robertson has a difficult stretch at some point late in the season that climaxes with him being benched, but comes for a late season turnaround that restores faith from fans.
3) The Leafs don't sign one of the top free agents, but add a quality top-six winger and a top-four defenseman along with at least one depth forward. (A guess, for fun : Boone Jenner and Rasmus Andersson). If the Leafs do add a top-six forward, it comes via trade.
Here is to hoping the Leafs do bigger and better than these predictions suggest.
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JANVIER 1 | 829 ANSWERS 5 Toronto Maple Leafs predictions for 2026 Do you see the predictions from the "5 Predictions" article happening? | ||
| Yes | 171 | 20.6 % |
| No | 281 | 33.9 % |
| Some yes, some no | 377 | 45.5 % |
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