Despite being alongside Auston Matthews for the majority of his career, Matthew Knies is on track to actually end up finding a spot lower in the lineup.
For the past three seasons, Knies has continued to blossom into one of the league's best and most unique power forwards. Able to score, be a playmaker, add immense toughness and physicality all while being on a very team friendly deal, Knies is someone who looks to be a key part of the Maple Leafs now and in the future.
He's also a player who is motivated to not only get back on the ice after injuries kept him away, but that he's still a key part of the lineup after so much trade speculation this summer:
I try not to look into it too much. Obviously, I'm not blind to it, I see it every now and then with my buddies sending it to me. It's cliché to say, but it's really out of my control, I didn't have any say as to what was going on. I'm fortunate that I'm still here and I'm a part of this group because I love these guys.
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Knies also mentioned that his injury has fully healed, he feels 100%, and he believes that his issues are firmly behind him.
Matthew Knies' best chance to thrive may be lower in the lineup
However, there may be some issues on where to place Knies in that lineup, despite being with Auston Matthews the majority of his career. Taking a deeper dive into Knies' analytics, it's hard not to see why a lineup change may be beneficial.
Knies holds only a 46.79 xGF% with John Tavares in 230 games played together, meanwhile he has a 53.79 xGF% with Matthews. While better, Matthews without Knies has a 51.41 xGF% so it isn't like Knies is elevating the captain. Without Matthews at all he only has a 40.97 xGF% which is pretty rough all things considered.
While Knies did put up a career-high 66 points including 43 assists last season, he was really one of the only Maple Leafs who produced offensively but he did it a lot on his own by personally driving the lines he was on.
If Knies needs someone to elevate him, then he has options but it'll be up to Jim Hiller to take a look at all the numbers and determine if going back to the status quo is the best idea. There's even a potential we could see Knies falling out of the top-six at points this season, though that might not necessarily be a bad idea.
Matthew Knies can thrive in a bigger role - literally
It may be disheartening to see Knies drop down in the lineup but that doesn't mean he can't thrive. Knies as part of a checking line alongside Nick Paul and Colton Sissons would be able to not only shutdown opponents with ease, but have two offensive threats as well.
Sissons is a player who thrived in keeping possession, and alongside Tomas Hertl and Reilly Smith in Vegas - had a 65.57 xGF%. That's a checking line that's very similar to skill and size to one that has Paul and Knies, and they could cause some serious damage at both ends of the ice.
A checking line isn't just meant to toss their weight around, but set the tone, be relentless, hound the opposition and become a nuisance in all three zones.
Knies has the offensive talent to capitalize on chances in the offensive end, and the savvy and physicality to set the tone in his own end.
Do you think Matthew Knies is going to hit 75+ points in 2026-27?
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