Matthew Knies was on a 97-point pace through his first 22 games before a lingering lower-body injury interrupted his season with a sharp decline following after.
Knies had a career year in 2025-26 which was punctuated by 66 points and 43 assists as he cemented himself as one of the best young power forwards in the NHL. A large part of that was due to his ability to score at will, putting up 26 points in the first 22 games of the season including 14 points in October alone.
A knee injury however had kept him on the shelf for three games and it was clear that as the season wore on, Knies was labouring. He admitted he was dealing with the injury for the rest of the season which makes his career year even more impressive considering he was doing it on a wonky knee.
Knies was performing at a 97-point pace prior to finding himself injured
But if you take a look at where Knies was prior to the injury and where he ended up - it's a steep fall. Knies' 26 points in 22 games is a 97-point pace which would have cleared him easily as Toronto's top scorer, and tied him for 9th in the NHL alongside Leon Draisaitl.
Though there is nothing to guarantee Knies would have continued on that pace as slumps and struggles do happen (not to mention the team's woes all season), it's still a number that would have placed him among the best in the league at only 23 years old. He was also a bigger factor on the power-play early on despite having only two goals.
He had two PPG in the first 11 games, then only managed four over the next 68 games. No doubt that's in part to Toronto's lack of a power-play, but Knies was in a position to do a lot more damage than he did.
The injury to Knies certainly did cause some issues however, and the Maple Leafs need to be aware that the decline may not just be a one-off. He looked less aggressive, he was a step behind at times, and when he needed to crash and bang around the ice he couldn't as he was trying to preserve his knee.
The decline in production led to Knies losing his top line spot
Knies only had 24 shots the entire month of January when he had 28 in October and 30 in December - in fact he only had 30 shots combined between March and April (per Hockey Reference).
He couldn't get inside quick enough, and he wasn't generating enough shot opportunities to score which led to him losing time to Bobby McMann, who while streaky - was showing legitimate top-six scoring potential. The team needed a finisher alongside Matthews at the time, and it shows how quickly the lineup changed once his early-season production cooled.
But now we come to 2026-27, where Knies is looking to be healthier, more prepared and ready for whatever grind this season comes with. A new sport performance staff will also be beneficial in keeping Knies' knee as comfortable and strong as possible, and he's clearly excited about the moves the team has made - like adding Gavin McKenna.
If Knies can stay healthy and sustain more of the pace he showed early last season, 66 points may look more like a stepping stone than a career ceiling.
But the real question is whether or not Knies can find himself playing at his pre-injury pace, or if he's still a bit cautious and lead him to play well - but nowhere near the star level he showed in 2025-26's first two months.
Do you think Matthew Knies can be a 90+ point player for the Toronto Maple Leafs?
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