Maple Leafs Face Crucial Decision to Maximize Brandon Carlo's Impact

Although the Leafs have made a major turnaround on their offensive groupings in both their top-six and in depth adds, the defensive structure of Toronto's lineup has been left relatively untouched.

Save for recently acquired Henry Thrun, who is not guaranteed to make the team but could play a part on the roster.

Besides Thrun, the Leafs defense is expected to remain intact, although the way the lines are structured could move around to find the right pairings that work.

According to Data from 'Natural Stat Trick', the most successful pairing alongside Morgan Rielly was with Chris Tanev.

The data shows Rielly and Tanev had a Corsi For% (CF%) of 53.11%, compared to 43.86% when Rielly is paired with Carlo.

What is most notable is the Carlo/Rielly pairing was the most successful pairing involving Carlo in the Leafs lineup, having a 42.86% with Jake McCabe, and an underwhelming 32.80% with Oliver Ekman-Larsson.

Carlo and Rielly had a solid playoffs together but the data shows he did not fit well with anyone else.

Although the data looks underwhelming for Carlo, it shows the defensively responsible Tanev fits with the offensive play-driver in Rielly.

One thing that is clear is that not touching the Rielly/Tanev pairing is logically the right move for Toronto, securing their place as the Leafs top defensive pair.

One user on X suggested Jake McCabe and Brandon Carlo, which was a pairing seldom used but could be a possibility.

The CF% is weaker than when paired with Rielly and Carlo, however.

If the current options haven't worked out for Toronto, would Brandon Carlo have a suitable linemate perhaps in Henry Thrun instead?

Interestingly, some of Thrun's best games came while playing on his off-side as a RHD due to a logjam on the Sharks left side, but could do well when moved to his natural left with Carlo on the right.

A potential Toronto Maple Leafs lineup that optimizes the best winning based on last season's success could look something like this:

Morgan Rielly - Chris Tanev

Jake McCabe - Oliver Ekman-Larsson

Henry Thrun - Brandon Carlo

Although Thrun and Carlo as a unit are unproven, Thrun needs reliability as he struggled to match with the play at times and playing on his off-hand didn't do much favors.

The Toronto Maple Leafs have uncertainty in how they'll approach their defense, and may spend the entire year finding the right pairings that work out for all three lines, but there is a clear idea of what may be the best chance to get the most out of their defensemen at the same time.