What Gavin McKenna actually changes for the Maple Leafs next season

Gavin McKenna is going to alter the lineup considerably for the Maple Leafs in 2026-27 though we should prepare ourselves for a realistic debut season from him.

Let's all be honest right now - Gavin McKenna is going to bring a ton of excitement. He's a generational talent who has brilliant vision, an elite creative mind, and the charm and marketability that could make him the face of the entire city for decades to come.

But there are also questions about how his leap from the NCAA to the NHL will be and where is he going to fit in the current lineup. There's still lots of work to be done before October, and while it's presumed he'll get a starring role, it's up to head coach Jim Hiller to decide where he plays.

Though if he is going to be a featured part of the lineup then we can certainly see how he will fit within the confines of the first line.

Where McKenna fits in the lineup right away

Nothing is certain but for McKenna, a spot in the top-six is all but guaranteed at least at the start. Whether or not he starts with Auston Matthews is another story but it's hard to see where he doesn't, and his role as the primary playmaker will hopefully unlock the captain's potential.

That is Jim Hiller's call however, and if he feels like McKenna is best suited alongside John Tavares as a mentor to start, then perhaps that's the vision he goes with. But his role will extend beyond just Matthews and Tavares, as he will be a focal point of the power-play.

With Darren Raddysh in tow now, the Maple Leafs need a facilitator who can get him the puck easily and allow him to fire away. McKenna provides that and with the extra open space he'll be able to find a easier route to his teammates and allow his vision to expand even further.

Don't expect him to be killing penalties though, and there may be some initial growing pains so you can't expect him to immediately dominate from the first puck drop. But there's a lot of roles and places where he is set to thrive, and it's all a matter of time until we find out how he'll fit.

Why his arrival shifts Toronto's entire timeline

McKenna coming in now certainly helps the future because he's going to be a stud for years to come, but how does he factor into a win-now mentality? Well, if he translates his talent into the NHL without an issue that's going to be a great start, but also recognizing that there are growing pains and it may not be perfect.

Him having the self-awareness to know that there will be struggles and that the NHL is a completely new challenge and not beat himself up is going to be key as well. Having a positive attitude and bringing everything he can to each shift is as important as him being an offensive phenom.

While he may not be the central focus as Toronto wants to win (though he'll be a huge part), he's certainly going to be the focus in a few years. If Auston Matthews does end up leaving when his contract is up (no indication thus far he will however) then it leaves Toronto without a captain and without a leader.

That's where McKenna steps in, and having two years alongside Matthews to grow and hopefully win together may be enough to change the captain's mind.

But if it doesn't, at least the Maple Leafs are prepared to move on without him and they'll be able to slot McKenna in as the new leader and face of the franchise.

The realistic expectations for an 18-year-old in year one

Now let's jump back down to reality a little bit. McKenna is a superstar already and there's no doubt he is going to succeed but let's take a look at how other 18-year olds have fared in their first NHL season:

Sidney Crosby - 81 GP, 102 Points
Steve Yzerman - 80 GP, 87 Points
Macklin Celebrini - 70 GP, 63 Points
Nathan MacKinnon - 82 GP, 63 Points
Dale Hawerchuk - 80 GP, 103 Points
Jimmy Carson - 80 GP, 79 Points

That is a Hall of Fame list and you often don't get to see as many 18-year olds breaking into the league unless you're generational. Even Connor McDavid and Auston Matthews were 19 years old when they broke into the league, and Alex Ovechkin was 20.

We aren't saying that McKenna will emulate the seasons that Hawerchuk or Crosby had, but if we take the average of those six players' point total, it comes out to 83 points (rounded up). If McKenna is capable of hitting those numbers in his debut then it is an unmitigated success and only sets him up down the road.

Now let's temper our expectations a bit - cautious optimism if you will.

McKenna will have to learn to get used to the systems and his teammates and we have to account for natural growth and progression. 83 points is still a relatively steep number and while he's capable, it's a bit of a road to get there.

So let's dial it down and say that he gets 65 points in his first season, while managing 20 goals. That would give him slightly more points than Celebrini and MacKinnon's debut seasons, and be a great foundation to build off of.

Need I remind you as well that MacKinnon's 63 points got him the Calder Trophy and a strong season from McKenna will all but assure he gets some hardware.

So with that being said, the sky is certainly the limit for Gavin McKenna but we should sit a little below the clouds at the start. Then once he gets comfortable he can take Toronto to heights unseen and stand at the top of the mountain and give everyone a view that they'll remember forever.

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