The Toronto Maple Leafs have had their fair share of first round picks since 2009 so let's take a look at how they panned out whether it be a success or failure.
With the Maple Leafs having a pretty solid 2026 NHL Draft, things are looking up for the world's biggest hockey market. Gavin McKenna came in first overall and he's going to be the next franchise cornerstone to hopefully be the piece that brings Toronto their first taste of success in 60 years.
They've also had some pretty good picks over the past few years, but also some pretty bad ones. There's no real way to know how these current picks are going to turn out, but going off past history we can at least try and see how McKenna will fare.
Note: Not every pick will be chosen. Names like Easton Cowan, Ben Danford etc. are too early to be claimed as a success or failure and there's still several names overseas who could return in the future
The Successes
Auston Matthews (2016) - 689 GP, 790 Points (428 Goals), 3x Rocket, 1x Hart
Say what you will about Matthews' performance in the playoffs or the fact he hasn't won the Cup yet, but he's been the most dynamic and pure scorer since coming into the league. His debut game saw him pot four goals against Ottawa and from there he went on a tear.
Two 60-goal seasons including a historic 69-goal campaign in 2023-24, an MVP, a three-time scoring champion, two-time All-Star, a Calder Trophy...the list goes on. He's been struggling the past couple of seasons but a combination of injuries and bad coaching decision have caused him to falter.
With a new head coach, Gavin McKenna on his wing and a healthy set of legs - we could see shades of the old Matthews again, but with hopefully a new look come the postseason.
Mitch Marner (2015) - 738 GP, 821 Points (576 Assists), 2x All-Star
Now Marner hasn't reached the accolades that Matthews has in terms of awards but he certainly has a leg up in the playoffs. Marner left town last summer and headed to Vegas, then proceeded to have a blistering postseason that came up short in the Stanley Cup Final - though he was definitely responsible for Vegas not pulling it out in the end despite his gaudy numbers prior.
But you can't deny that Marner hasn't been a superstar, and he was the anchor of the Maple Leafs offence for the near decade he was here. Not only that, but he was the team's best playoff performer statistically and perhaps didn't deserve as much criticism for his play; more his attitude.
Marner is no longer a part of the team and is more than happy to be moving on, but you can't argue that Marner's time in Toronto was a failure on his part. He gave them over 700 points, nearly a plus-200 rating, and elite two-way play that often got overshadowed by the offensive side of things.
William Nylander (2014) - 750 GP, 691 Points (292 Goals)
Often regarded as the third head in the Hydra that was the Matthews/Marner/Nylander combination, there's a lot of good you can say about Nylander despite his lack of accomplishments which included surprisingly never being named an All-Star.
Five straight 30+ goal seasons including back-to-back-to-back 40+ goal seasons has proven that Nylander can be one of the deadliest players on the ice, but his lack of defensive effort at times earns him his fair share of groans.
He plays by his own rule book, and while it's helped him so far - he may need to hunker down the older he gets.
Morgan Rielly (2012) - 951 GP, 549 Points (451 Assists)
Now, some of you may argue that Rielly is a bust but in all aspects of him being one...it's not true. Draft busts don't score over 500 points in their NHL career especially as a defender, nor do they last 13+ seasons in the League.
We definitely can criticize Rielly for his defensive lapses and the fact he plays more like a forward than a blueliner. But he's averaged 42 points in his career which is pretty much what you expect. Did we want Rielly to be a 75-80 point player? Absolutely, but he's also not Cale Makar or Quinn Hughes.
Rielly's career has been marred by some pretty bad defensive mishaps and the fact that he has quickly regressed. But looking at what he's done so far and how important he's been to the locker room, there's a lot of positives around Morgan Rielly even if you aren't a fan of what he's done recently.
Nazem Kadri (2009) - 1,062 GP, 760 Points (323 Goals), 1x Cup Champion
We come now to the last success over the past decade and a half and honestly, he's the only one to actually win it all. Kadri did so in Colorado after an absurd 87-point season that included 15 points in 16 playoff contests. He was a man possessed and a key reason why the Avalanche came out on top.
He always seems to bounce around trade rumours every year, with the Maple Leafs often at the forefront especially when they want to make a playoff push. Kadri's career hasn't taken a nosedive and while he's not at the heights he once was, he's a respected and trusted veteran who is still a solid contributor.
If there's anything Kadri can hold over his Maple Leafs draft pick brethren is that he has indeed hoisted the Cup and no amount of 69-goal seasons or 100-point campaigns can ever overshadow that.
The Disappointments/Busts
I hesitate to call anyone a true 'bust' unless you're talking about guys like Alexandre Daigle or Nail Yakupov, though I would argue both of those came down to attitude and personality clashes than a misread of talent - they were very, very good junior players but it never came to fruition here and it caused a ton of friction.
But for Toronto, they have had their fair share of disappointments too, and we're going to start off with arguably their worst one in a long, long time would make many people's top list of 'busts' in Maple Leafs history.
Tyler Biggs (2011) - 0 GP, 0 Points
Oof. Now, nothing against Biggs, I am sure he's a stand-up guy who deserved to be in pro hockey, but...suffice to say it didn't work out. He never made the NHL, only had 15 points in 108 games with the Marlies, and retired after the 2018-19 season after spending time in England, then the ECHL.
Biggs' best pro hockey came from 2016-2018 where he had 71 points in 113 games with the Kalamazoo Wings of the ECHL. Yeah, there's genuinely not much to say about this pick other than it isn't just a swing and miss; but the bat flew into the stands and took out the popcorn guy too.
Stuart Percy (2011) - 12 GP, 3 Points (3 Assists)
Percy was taken three picks after Biggs and at least he can say he made the Maple Leafs albeit for only 12 games. He did manage three points and at the bare minimum was a solid AHL player, but never stuck around in North America.
He moved to Finland in 2020 to play for Sport in the Liiga, and since found a home in Czechia playing for various clubs and is still actively playing, with him having 15 points in 44 games for HC Plzen and unlike Biggs, is still looking to continue his career wherever it takes him.
Frederik Gauthier (2013) - 178 GP, 31 Points (13 Goals)
Well, this was a pick that caught a lot of people by surprise but there was genuine hope for Gauthier. He was a massive on ice presence at 6-foot-5 and 240 pounds, he had a very good junior career with Rimouski, and Toronto needed a young, fresh centre of the future.
But he never really got into anything more than a bottom-six role, and while he had some minor success at the NHL level, after leaving Toronto he only managed 10 games in two seasons before moving overseas.
Gauthier has spent the majority of his career in Switzerland with HC Ajoie and is still currently actively playing though there's no decision on where he's going to play for 2026-27.
**We omitted Rodion Amirov in 2020 out of respect for his passing.
What this means for Gavin McKenna
Well, we've certainly got a mixed bag here but for McKenna we are going to lean towards more on the success than failure side. It's hard to see him going the way of Biggs or Gauthier with his level of talent, and he'll be more akin to Matthews or Marner.
Projections have McKenna's ceiling as Patrick Kane which for all intents and purposes is a huge honour considering he's a three-time Cup winner and a future Hall of Famer. If that's the case, then we can expect great things to come from the 18-year old phenom.
One could argue that Matthews and McKenna could be Toronto's version of Kane and Toews. We have a flashy, playmaking threat in McKenna (Kane) and Matthews is a two-way force who can provide elite offence and defence while also being a leader (Toews).
If so, then we could be in for something special. We've yet to see how the two play together and the potential chemistry there is so unbelievably tantalizing it's hard to see them failing together. Oh, if all else fails, he can play with John Tavares and William Nylander - so he's got star power everywhere.
No matter the case, it seems like Gavin McKenna won't be a disappointment for the Maple Leafs and he's got the chance to be one of the greatest players in team history when he hangs up his skates.
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