Two injuries in two seasons have quietly changed what Auston Matthews is worth

Toronto Maple Leafs captain Auston Matthews will be an unrestricted free agent in the Summer of 2028, and the franchise is running out of time to make a concrete decision.

For the next two seasons, the captain will be making $13.25 million per season. However, a plethora of injuries, as well as a decline in production, have left general manager John Chayka with some real questions.

Matthews' recent seasons have changed the calculation Toronto will eventually have to make. His next contract won't be judged only against the player who scored 69 goals, but against his production, durability and age when a new deal would begin in 2028. The next two seasons will help determine which version the Maple Leafs are actually paying for.

The three seasons that took Auston Matthews from 69 goals to 30

During the 2023-24 season, Auston Matthews scored a whopping 69 goals in 81 games. Overall, it was a phenomenal showing from the captain, who was one goal away from being the first 70-goal scorer since Teemu Selanne.

The following year, Matthews suffered from a lingering injury that kept him out of the lineup periodically throughout the 2024-25 season. In fact, the captain traveled to Germany to get treatment for the problem.

Offensively, the captain struggled. He went from 69 goals to 33, while also scoring just 21 5-on-5 goals after scoring 48 the previous season. Moreover, his shooting percentage dropped 6.1 percentage points, another significant change from his 69-goal season.

Last season was even worse. In 60 games, Matthews had 30 goals. He subsequently suffered an MCL injury on March 12, and that ended his season. Matthews has not played a full campaign since his record-breaking year, and it has left the Leafs wondering what his value is, and whether things ever will be the same.

Toronto has two years to find out before Matthews can leave

Throughout the offseason, Maple Leafs general manager John Chayka built a team to compete right now. He brought in depth pieces like Colton Sissons, Nick Paul, and Jack Roslovic. Furthermore, he signed Stanley Cup-winner Sergei Bobrovsky.

This is a roster that understands it has a two-year window to turn things around. Matthews is auditioning just as much for the Leafs as the team is auditioning for him.

However, there is not a lot of wiggle room here. There are just two seasons for both sides to figure things out, and Toronto's biggest question isn't simply whether Matthews deserves another contract. It's whether his next deal should still be priced like one of the NHL's most dominant goal scorers if durability and production remain concerns when negotiations begin.

The hardest decision comes if Matthews lands somewhere in between. A healthy return to 50 or 60 goals would make Toronto's choice straightforward, while another injury-plagued decline would strengthen the case for caution. But if Matthews remains an elite scorer without returning to his 2023-24 level, Chayka will eventually have to decide how much of his next contract should be based on what Matthews still is rather than the 69-goal player he once was.

Also read on Hockey Patrol :
Maple Leafs' 2026 third-round pick is already getting a top-pair test in Sweden