After Brad Marchand underwent offseason surgery, his status for the start of the season is up in the air, which gives Toronto a key advantage over the Panthers.
Marchand admitted in an Instagram video that he was going to be missing Zdeno Chara's alumni game due to having offseason surgery he was trying to avoid, but ultimately couldn't:
Unfortunately, I had to have a surgery, was trying to fix a problem without surgery, but unfortunately that was unable to happen and had to kind of do it last minute. With the time and recovery I am going to need, I won't be able to make it and play in the game unfortunately.
Florida Hockey Now contributor George Richards added that Marchand's surgery may have something to do with his hip and a potential sports hernia injury though that's not publicly confirmed by the Panthers:
Marchand, who is believed to be dealing with a hip and sports hernia injury, could be out two months or more after having the surgery.
If Marchand misses several weeks, Florida would begin the season without him during a difficult opening stretch, giving Atlantic rivals like Toronto a chance to bank points before the Leafs and Panthers even meet.
Marchand could miss Florida's most vulnerable stretch before Toronto ever sees the Panthers
If Marchand were to miss the first month of the season, that would mean that Florida loses him against their season opener vs. the reigning Cup winners in Carolina, then immediately go on a West Coast swing against San Jose, Anaheim, and Los Angeles - three teams all with something to prove.
After the four-game road trip, Florida returns home to face Minnesota before its first Atlantic Division game against Buffalo. That means a potential Marchand absence would hit before Florida gets many early chances to take points from division rivals.
Toronto on the other hand does also have an early West Coast swing against Vegas, Colorado, and Utah however are going to already have two divisional matchups prior (Montreal and Ottawa) then play Buffalo when they come back from out West.
Toronto doesn't play the Panthers for the first time until Dec. 3 which will likely be more than enough time for Marchand to return barring any setbacks.
But it does put the Maple Leafs in a position to start off strong, knowing that Florida is down one of their key contributors for the first month or so - and with how little point differential there was in the Atlantic - every point counts.
Florida's cap squeeze could make Marchand's absence matter beyond his recovery
Right now, Florida has only $34,000 in cap space against the projected ceiling. That's still cap compliant but it's little room to spare. If Marchand's recovery hits long enough for LTIR to become an option, Florida could gain temporary help, but that relief would depend on the timing and how long Marchand is expected to be out.
But if not, and things turn south for whatever reason, that means the Panthers might want to place him on LTIR and use his cap relief. They can do so, but they would need to make sure they have a plan in place for when he does return, and the playoff salary cap complicates a possible postseason roster.
Florida is going to be down a critical piece of their lineup, and if Marchand takes longer to recover then it's more of an unknown how the Panthers will respond. A trade or signing may fit, but then they're back to square one when Marchand returns - they have to clear space.
If the Panthers can't get their footing in the time that Marchand is healthy, then it's going to be harder for them to play catch up.
And it's why the Maple Leafs can't let this opportunity slip away, even if they will face Marchand in December. They can make an early statement while putting their heated rivals in an even rough predicament than they're already in - and give themselves a bit more breathing room.
Will Toronto have an advantage with Brad Marchand out for the first month?
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