If you were to ask NHL.com if they think Gavin McKenna is a shoe-in for the Calder, they'd not only say he isn't assured the award, but he may not be in the running.
There is a lot of hype and excitement around 2026 first overall pick Gavin McKenna and for good reason. The NCAA standout has the potential to be a superstar for years to come, and as part of the Maple Leafs, he has the biggest spotlight possible shining brightly on him.
Not that he minds though, as McKenna has embraced the pressure and looks forward to not only playing in front of hockey's most passionate fans, but that he believes this could be the year that ends Toronto's Cup drought.
You'd also think he would at least be a contender to earn the Calder Trophy in 2026-27 as the NHL's top rookie though he has a lot of competition especially with the likes of Ivar Stenberg already showing some incredible growth.
NHL.com doesn't think Gavin McKenna will win the Calder Trophy
But for as good as McKenna is and can be, it seems the NHL thinks it won't be enough.
NHL.com's latest article talks about potential sleeper picks on who could be the winner of NHL's top prize for rookies, picking Washington's Cole Hutson to win. While they mentioned McKenna in passing - they had no room on their list or their honourable mentions:
Although the front-runners for the Calder Trophy are forwards Gavin McKenna and Porter Martone, it's worth noting each of the past two winners of this award have been defensemen: Schaefer last season and Cole's brother Lane Hutson in 2024-25.
Others: Ivar Stenberg, F, SJS; Jacob Fowler, G, MTL; Anton Frondell, F, CHI
They do mention that McKenna and Martone are front-runners but stopped clear of naming him the likeliest person to win. They are also going off historical precedence with the previous two Calder winners in Matthew Schaefer and Lane Hutson, but they didn't have nearly as much competition as McKenna.
Can McKenna outshine the rest of the field?
There's no denying that he has the talent to win the Calder and he has his sights set on it too. However it won't be easy. Stenberg has proven that he can already make a huge impact, and we've yet to see how Caleb Malhotra and Albert Smits do as well.
Projections have varied as to the point total McKenna can reach but it seems to hover around the 60-point mark. That would be enough to put him in serious contention historically, but that's just the baseline.
If he truly wants to cement himself as the best rookie in the NHL then he'll need to get off to a hot start and keep the foot on the gas. He already showed great chemistry with John Tavares, and it's time to ramp that up.
With McKenna managing to hit 60+ points and being a key reason as to why the Maple Leafs are competitive again then the Calder could very well be in his sights. But he needs to keep his head on a swivel because he's got more than enough competition nipping at his heels.
Do you think Gavin McKenna will win the Calder Trophy as the NHL's top rookie?
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