Matthew Knies' Contract Demands Raise Eyebrows: Will the Maple Leafs Overpay?

Matthew Knies has kicked off the 2024-25 season on a high note, scoring three goals and adding one helper through his first eight games. Though his Toronto Maple Leafs have come out of the gate somewhat inconsistently at 4-4-0, which is punctuated by a stinker of an effort when losing to the St. Louis Blues, Knies has been a bright light for them.

The hot start raises some eyebrows, as he seemingly has made a point to avoid the infamous "sophomore slump" that normally faces many young players after their rookie year. Knies could have more points if not for some unfortunate puck luck, which suggests his ceiling may be even higher than his statistics indicate this season.

The Arizona native has shown impressive poise on the ice, combining his size, skill, and hockey sense and his ability to create chances for goals and play effectively at both ends of the rink has created much chatter in the hockey world. Indeed, Matthew Knies has been such a standout that comparisons to his fellow young forwards throughout the league have been unavoidable, particularly as he approaches a critical contract negotiation period as a pending RFA. The result has created rampant speculation about what the next deal will look like.

One comparison of interest has been that of Matthew Knies to Montreal Canadiens forward Juraj Slafkovsky. Coming off an impressive sophomore campaign where Slafkovsky posted 50 points in 82 games, the former first-overall pick inked a lucrative contract worth $7.6 million per season. Sportsnet's Nick Kypreos has identified this deal as perhaps a comparable deal that could be used for Knies' upcoming negotiations. Some question whether Knies has done enough to warrant a similar payday, especially considering Slafkovsky's deal was partly a factor due to his selection as a top pick.

A $7 million annual price tag would definitely impact how the Maple Leafs operate their salary cap moving forward. It was an interesting balancing act, finding money for the secondary players like Matthew Knies with Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, and William Nylander already taking up such a large portion of the Toronto payroll. To be committed to over $7 million per season for Knies would not only indicate management's belief in his potential, but also foreshadow some sacrifices elsewhere in the lineup and changes would likely have to be made elsewhere. Perhaps the Leafs finally decide it's time to move on from John Tavares? He is an unrestricted free agent after this season and his production and ice time has fallen drastically so far into 2024-2025.

Ultimately, it begs the question: Is Matthew Knies worth at least $7 million per season? While that might prove a value he could grow into based on his early-season performance, it remains a gamble for the Maple Leafs. If he keeps improving into a top-line forward, that investment could pay off but if his growth begins to plateau, then such a deal complicates Toronto's cap situation.

For now, Knies has the remainder of the season to prove himself to this club and to the front office preparing to make a critical financial decision that could affect not only Knies, but the entirety of the Toronto Maple Leafs.