RG.org's Jimmy Murphy pointed to Erik Karlsson being traded before the 2026-27 season and the Toronto Maple Leafs were named as a likely destination.
Murphy's comments come after Josh Yohe of The Athletic revealed that it would be 'unlikely' that the Pittsburgh Penguins offer Karlsson a deal beyond this season, which is where Murphy added the potential trade scenario:
I'd be surprised if they give Erik Karlsson a new deal after this season, despite his brilliance - Josh Yohe, The Athletic, 07/20/2026)
Murphy then followed with his own take:
IMHO, Erik Karlsson to the #GoSensGo or #LeafsForever before the 2026-27 season starts.
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Now, this is strictly Murphy's opinion and there is nothing public that has been revealed regarding either Pittsburgh's reluctance to offer him an extension nor has there been anything but pure speculation regarding where Karlsson will end up.
Karlsson's 66-point season strengthens the case for a trade now
Already enjoying a Hall of Fame career, Karlsson has shown no signs of slowing down and just put up a 15-goal, 66-point campaign with the Penguins. He won the Norris in 2023 with a 101-point season in San Jose, and while he hasn't hit that level in Pittsburgh, he's put up an average of 58.3 points, 46 assists and 85 blocks over the last three years.
To put that into perspective, Morgan Rielly - Toronto's #1 option offensively on the blueline, had 36 points last season. That's a difference of 30 points, and unlike Rielly hasn't regressed on the offensive end nor has the defensive side slacked.
Toronto did well to add Darren Raddysh to help the power-play, but they need a true quarterback which is where Karlsson is the perfect fit. He's got 331 career points on the PP (48 goals, 283 assists) with 58 PP points (239 games) over the last three years (Rielly has 40 points over the same span in 232 games).
Karlsson would only be a one or potentially two-year option if the team does decide to pursue him, and his $10-million cap hit is going to be something tough to work around.
But there's no doubt that adding the calibre of player that Karlsson is - Three Norris Trophies, 936 career points, 12th all-time in points for defensemen - is worth the price and with them in a win-now window, adding one of the top defenders of all time is a great way to boost your odds.
Toronto would need serious salary retention or move a big contract
Though that price is where things get difficult. Toronto is already $2.75-million over the cap so adding Karlsson's $10-million is going to put them deeper in debt. Pittsburgh could retain money as they have the cap space necessary and two open retention slots.
Even if so, the team needs to move out money so you can expect Rielly to at least be in the conversation though he'd need to waive his NMC. If Pittsburgh is losing an offensive defenceman then odds are they'd like to replace him and while Rielly isn't the same calibre of player as Karlsson; he's younger and signed longer.
A combination of retention and getting rid of a contract is the likeliest option with Pittsburgh retaining a portion with Rielly's $7.5-million hit going the other way.
Toronto could also make a separate trade involving a player like Dakota Joshua to free up cap space, then figure out a way to work in Karlsson. Rielly and Joshua combine for $10.75-million - enough to cover Karlsson with retention at 35% ($3.5M retention; $6.5M cap hit).
The fit is undeniable, as Karlsson has proven he can still be an effective offensive player even at 36 years old though as much as Toronto wants to bring him in - it'll take a bit of legwork to do so and only time will let us know if Murphy's prediction comes true.
Would you like to see the Maple Leafs try and acquire Erik Karlsson?
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