Adam Fantilli is still without a contract despite a 59-point season and is an offer sheet candidate. Toronto could use him but can't afford the deal he expects.
Fantilli, 21, put up his second straight 50+ point season with the Blue Jackets this past season while adding 139 hits and winning nearly 50% of his face-offs. After a strong effort during his entry-level deal, he's looking for a pay raise.
The way that NHL offer sheets work is that teams who are losing the player to the offer (should they neglect to match the price) are entitled to compensation via draft picks. The higher the price, the more lucrative the return though one thing to note is that those picks must be those teams' original selections - nothing from prior deals.
For example, if Philadelphia were able to sign Leo Carlsson to that reported $18-million AAV, then the Anaheim Ducks would have gotten four first-round picks from the Flyers. Fantilli could end up becoming quite expensive, though the prospect of adding a 21-year-old centre was worth it to Philadelphia, at least enough to mortgage the next four years of draft picks.
The Maple Leafs lack the specific picks necessary to offer Fantilli a proper offer sheet
The Maple Leafs are a team who would love to bring Fantilli aboard but they may not be able to offer the price Fantilli wants. While technically they can offer sheet him for a maximum of $4,775,666 per season, it's very likely he reaches an AAV much higher than that.
As soon as that price reaches a dollar more ($4,775,667) the price for offer sheeting Fantilli becomes a 2027 first-rounder and 2027 third-rounder.
Toronto holds neither of those picks after the Scott Laughton trade that sent that pick and Nikita Grebenkin to ironically, Philadelphia. The third-rounder was traded to Utah in the Matias Maccelli deal and now both men are no longer with the team.
Colorado's 2027 that Toronto owns doesn't count towards the compensation, and if there's a chance that Fantilli reaches $9.52M per season - Toronto now needs 2x of their own first-rounders, a second-rounder and a third-rounder.
Reacquiring both picks presents a brand new logistical problem
Now, there is a chance that somehow through other deals they are able to re-acquire those picks, but a) teams won't let those go for cheap and b) Toronto is currently $2.75M over the cap and need to clear room before any other signings.
You'd be giving up more assets in the hope of adding previous picks to try and sign a player who is able to be outbid by not only other clubs but his own team by matching. That's too many variables to make work in such a short amount of time.
Even if the team got those picks, you're going to be signing Fantilli to the maximum allowable salary so for argument's sake let's say it's $7,163,498 per season. If that's the case, Toronto needs to clear $9,913,498 dollars in order to break even on the deal.
Waiving depth players won't cover that, and Max Domi's LTIR relief is only covering a third of that price. A genuine contract or two would need to be moved whether it be Morgan Rielly ($7.5M AAV), or a combination of players such as Dakota Joshua ($3.25M AAV), Oliver Ekman-Larsson ($3.5M AAV) or Chris Tanev ($4.5M AAV).
That's too many roadblocks for John Chayka and the Maple Leafs, with losing not only more assets than they're taking in, on top of not even guaranteeing they can sign Fantilli even after all that work. It would be great to bring him in, though that's much more grounded in fantasy than reality at this point.
Where will Adam Fantilli sign?
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