Maple Leafs already $2.75M over cap with another $3.5M McKenna issue looming

Toronto is already $2.75M over the projected cap, and Gavin McKenna's bonus doesn't help matters despite the Maple Leafs not needing to pay him right away.

As the Toronto Maple Leafs prepare for the 2026-27 season, they are going to need to get themselves cap compliant. A flurry of offseason moves has left the team $2.75M over the projected cap, and with only a few weeks to get things in order - some type of move needs to be made be it a trade, or by waiving multiple players.

But it's not just their offseason spending that is going to hurt them, but also the gigantic bonus they offered Gavin McKenna, and despite not needing to pay him immediately, they will need to eventually which will only cut into their funds going forward.

McKenna's $1.075M cap hit comes with another $3.5M Toronto may eventually have to absorb

Although McKenna's current cap hit is only $1.075M, the team has offered him a grand total of $3.5M in bonuses depending on if he hits certain milestones. While the team doesn't have to pay him right away, it does turn his fairly cheap rookie deal into a pricey one if he thrives.

If McKenna earns bonuses that Toronto cannot absorb under this season's cap, the unabsorbed amount can become an overage charged against 2027-28. Granted, the team is all locked up beyond this season and there are no pressing free agents to worry about - but they also can't make many moves.

McKenna's bonuses kick in if he hits four of the 'A' level bonus caps such as:

- 20 goals
- 35 assists
- 60 points
- Top six in Time on Ice among forwards (in total and/or per game) on team (minimum 42 games)
- Top three in +/- among forwards on team (minimum 42 games)
- 0.73 points per game (minimum 42 games)
- End-of Season All Rookie Team
- All Star Selection
- All Star MVP

Those are worth $250,000 each, so with a maximum four, it costs Toronto $1M. The 'B' level bonuses are worth $2.5M and are paid out if McKenna hits one of these milestones in 2026-27:

- Top Ten in NHL Forward Goals, Assists, points, or points per game (min 42 GP)
- Win any of the following trophies: Hart, Selke, Richard, Conn Smythe, Norris
- 1st or 2nd team All-Star

It is also good to note that the Calder Trophy does not count towards the bonuses, so if he were to win that award, but not finish with any of the other 'B' milestones, Toronto only needs to pay him the $1M should he reach those.

Toronto's opening-night cap moves could determine how much of McKenna's breakout bill reaches next season

With all that out of the way, the focus now lies on Toronto getting cap compliant before the start of the regular season. Even if they don't need to worry about McKenna until later, they still need to field a roster under the cap.

That means their opening night cuts are going to be important for saving money now and keeping a few dollars in the bank for McKenna. The more money Toronto saves now on their cuts, the more flexibility they will have in the future, plus with a logjam up front - they need to do something soon.

Later on however. it's going to be interesting to see who Toronto values and how much they are willing to keep expensive contracts in tow for the sake of winning now. If players like Dakota Joshua or Max Domi aren't effective or unable to contribute, then holding onto them is only going to hurt Toronto now and later on.

Regardless of the rising cap, the Maple Leafs and John Chayka need to make sure they have enough money to become compliant now, while also keeping the door open to pay McKenna his bonuses should he reach them. With how much money he spent on the bottom-six, you start to wonder if Chayka should have kept some funds reserved in case his prized rookie breaks out.

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