Erik Karlsson entering the trade market may not rush a Morgan Rielly trade but it does give teams a prominent option while Toronto still explores their own deal.
Karlsson's tenure with the Penguins has been speculated on this summer as he's got a $10-million cap hit (from Pittsburgh, $1.5M from San Jose) and is expected to be a free agent in 2027. With reports stating that Pittsburgh is unlikely to extend him a contract past this year, they may decide to trade him in order to get some assets back.
Karlsson, 36, can still offer an elite offensive presence on the blueline and is coming off a 66-point season in 2025-26. The three-time Norris winner has shown no signs of regressing, and any prospective contenders would have a great asset to help keep them competitive.
But if he is indeed going to be dealt - though there's no immediate reason to move him - then it's only going to make the Maple Leafs feel pressured to trade one of their own defenders with a big contract - Morgan Rielly.
Karlsson could add competition to Rielly's limited trade market
Rielly's future has been a hotly contested topic this offseason and reports ranging from him being open to a deal to him being a part of the lineup has created a foggy situation that doesn't have a clear end point right now.
While Karlsson's deal is expensive and hard to move financially, teams acquiring him are getting a reliable 50+ point defenceman who is only a few years removed from a 101-point season. Unlike Rielly, you know that Karlsson can be depended on to give you offence while not hampering you defensively, and as a right-handed shot he comes at a premium.
Rielly's struggled the last two seasons to find any footing on offence and put up only 77 points and a minus-26 in 160 games from 2024-2026. If he were putting up numbers similar to Karlsson then his defensive liabilities could be overlooked, but his offensive regression highlights it instead.
His reduced role on the power-play thanks to the acquisition of Darren Raddysh could be a factor as well, and if he's unable to get enough time to shine, then teams may move on from him.
If Karlsson is dealt prior to the season opening up then it wouldn't exactly intensify the need to get a deal done in that timeframe but it does leave them with one less option. Toronto can't afford Rielly to have a slow start and lower his stock even more, so they may be trying to get a deal done sooner though there's a chance they wait and hope for a bounce back.
But that timeframe doesn't exist unless Morgan Rielly agrees to a trade
Toronto could find a partner willing to take on Rielly, acquire some assets to recoup what they can, and move on - that is if Rielly lets them.
The biggest issue besides his financial hit is the fact he holds all the power and can decide where or if he wants to be traded. He did give the team a four-team list earlier this summer that had a Western Conference presence, and he does seem open to exploring other options but it ultimately comes down to his decision.
If Rielly is comfortable - and why wouldn't he be; he's been here 13 years after all. Then you can expect him to want to stay and win with the only team and teammates he's ever known. It would be a storybook ending for Rielly to persevere through all the criticism and be a factor in helping Toronto lift the Cup.
But that story could also have an ending where Rielly sticks around with no success, and his contract and production continue to be a problem. Karlsson's prospective deal could influence interested parties, and Toronto has to weigh losing him is worth more in cap flexibility than what he could offer on-ice.
At the end of the day though, it all comes down to Rielly's choice regardless of if Karlsson is dealt away or not.
Do you think Toronto is going to end up trading Morgan Rielly?
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