Elliotte Friedman floated a theory connecting NHL expansion in Houston and Atlanta to Gary Bettman's eventual succession plan.
As the NHL thinks about expanding to 33 and potentially 34 teams, it seems like the reason behind Gary Bettman's push for that expansion has a lot to do with the amount of money he, and the rest of the NHL can earn.
Gary Bettman's final expansion goes well beyond just adding two new teams
According to Elliotte Friedman, his theory is that the NHL wants to expand in both Houston and Atlanta given they are both in the Top-10 in the U.S. television market, which in turn will give the NHL much more leverage and negotiating power when discussing the next TV rights deal:
My guesstimate: Houston, Atlanta, new TV deal. And then, after that happens, if he pulls it off, the Commissioner rides partly into the sunset and Bill Daly takes over as Commissioner.
Friedman went a bit deeper explaining that Houston's TV market ranks sixth in the U.S. meanwhile Atlanta ranks seventh, and that expanding to bigger markets is almost going to be a necessity when it comes to negotiating a new U.S. broadcasting deal.
In addition to that new revenue brought in, the NHL is also looking at a price of over $2B in order to bring in a new franchise. Expansion would still bring enormous financial upside, but the exact fee structure for any future team has not been finalized publicly - but we know it'll be in the billions of dollars.
Expanding beyond 32 teams would move the NHL past the NFL in franchise count among the major North American leagues and Bettman knows that adding more and more American teams is only going to strengthen the NHL's profitability. If he can prove to broadcasters that these new teams are not only popular, but also turn a profit - it's going to entice networks to pick up games knowing they have a wider audience- therefore more commercial and product exposure.
Bettman could leave Daly a league built to endure an entirely different financial era
When Bettman came into the NHL back in 1993, the league was currently sitting at 24 teams, with them already expanding prior to the 1991-92 season (San Jose, Ottawa, Tampa Bay).
When he eventually leaves, his successor (likely Bill Daly) will inherit 10 more teams, including two relatively new teams with a very wide audience. He'll also be walking into a brand new TV rights deal, and the most profitable era in league history.
But he also represents something the fans may not appreciate - continuity. Bettman has received a lot of criticism for certain aspects of the league, the previous lockout, the issues with teams having an unfair advantage, and ignoring Canadian expansion in favour of American.
If Daly eventually succeeds Bettman, the transition would likely represent continuity more than a complete philosophical reset, given how closely he has worked alongside Bettman for years.
But as long as he gets his TV rights, expansion teams, and round of applause for all his hard work, then it really doesn't matter about when Gary Bettman leaves. Once he's done that - he's really got nothing left to accomplish and can happily pass the torch while riding off into retirement.
Do you think the NHL will expand to 34 teams by 2030?
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