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Darren Dreger: 'If It's Higher Than 50/50, Why Hasn't He Signed Yet?' - McDavid Uncertainty Grows


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Charlie McAfee
October 5, 2025  (0:12)
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Sep 28, 2025; Edmonton, Alberta, CAN; Edmonton Oilers forward Connor McDavid (97) follows the play against the Vancouver Canucks at Rogers Place. Mandatory Credit: Perry Nelson-Imagn Images
Photo credit: Perry Nelson-Imagn Images

NHL Insider Darren Dreger is under the belief that if Connor McDavid's odds of re-signing with Edmonton are better than expected, he's puzzled why there's no deal.

The continued debate about whether or not Connor McDavid is going to re-sign in Edmonton has dominated the headlines this offseason, and we are no closer to a conclusion as the regular season approaches.
We've heard all types of potential deals ranging from extremely expensive, to short-term and fairly reasonable. But whatever ends up happening at the end of the day, it's going to be something we don't expect.

What Darren Dreger Really Meant by His Comment

It's such a wildcard that it's leaving some analysts perplexed, such is the case with NHL Insider Darren Dreger.
Dreger revealed that he's a bit confused as to the end game for McDavid and the Oilers, as the odds of him re-signing being 50/50 seem to be much higher than that, which is leaving him puzzled:
There's lots of reasons why it should be higher than 50/50, but if it's higher than 50/50, why hasn't he done it already?

Those reasons could include familiarity, the chance to consistently compete for a Stanley Cup, and not wanting to risk his reputation in Edmonton however we won't know until he makes a decision.

How McDavid's Uncertain Future Could Impact the NHL Landscape

If the world's greatest player is undecided about his future in Edmonton, not only does that drastically change their outlook going forward, but the rest of the NHL's too.
Knowing that McDavid was holding out for potentially a better deal or a chance to play for his hometown Maple Leafs, then it might give other potential free agents pause about re-signing this season too.
Jack Eichel could decide to head to Boston to play near his home, Alex Tuch could decide to head out of Buffalo and sign a massive deal to compete and be part of a perennial contender.
Evgeni Malkin might choose to finish his career fighting for a Cup; there are seemingly endless possibilities.
Granted, this is based off McDavid signing but if he does, and that salary reaches upwards of $17-18M; and surpassing Kirill Kaprizov's record-breaker; then we could see even more ridiculous contracts going forward.
Couple this with Chris Johnston's report that the NHL salary cap could actually end up being higher than anticipated, these deals are going to be lucrative and long-term.
That means that teams are going to be fighting tooth and nail this summer if McDavid is available, and we might also end up seeing a lot more trades to open up cap space for the offseason come March.
The NHL doesn't run solely on Connor McDavid alone, however his contract situation could set a precedent with ramifications that the league is going to feel for years to come.
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Darren Dreger: 'If It's Higher Than 50/50, Why Hasn't He Signed Yet?' - McDavid Uncertainty Grows

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