The NHL is adding two teams, putting Maple Leafs players at risk in expansion

Earlier today on 32 Thoughts, Elliotte Friedman reported on NHL commissioner Gary Bettman's succession plan. Effectively, Bettman wants to expand the league to 34 teams before he sails into the sunset.

Friedman believes Houston and Atlanta are the two most likely options, although Austin could be a wild card. Meanwhile, this would be funded through expansion fees and a United States TV deal with the likes of ESPN and TNT.

Thirty-four teams means two more expansion drafts. The Toronto Maple Leafs would have to leave some of their players exposed on two separate occasions, creating a dilemma for general manager John Chayka.

Toronto's protection list could get uncomfortable faster than expected

The NHL has not yet announced what the new expansion draft rules would even look like. For now, all we have to go on is the Las Vegas Golden Knights and Seattle Kraken model.

Players who will be safe are high-grade superstars like Auston Matthews and William Nylander. You can add guys under contract into that list, like Darren Raddysh and Morgan Rielly. The biggest variable is timing. Under the Vegas and Seattle rules, first- and second-year professionals were exempt, meaning players such as McKenna or other young Leafs could potentially avoid the protection-list math entirely depending on when an expansion draft takes place.

As it stands, the Leafs have more players worth protecting than protection slots available. Matthew Knies, Nylander, and even Anthony Stolarz are guys whose contracts extend well into the expansion window. This creates some interesting math for Chayka.

The Maple Leafs are unlikely to have to worry about stars in a potential expansion draft. Instead, they will need to think about which depth guys they are okay with leaving unprotected.

The Maple Leafs could lose exactly the kind of depth John Chayka just spent the summer rebuilding

The more interesting risk is what Toronto's roster looks like when expansion actually arrives. Veterans such as Paul, Sissons, Blueger, Duhaime and Roslovic could become exactly the kind of useful NHL-ready depth that expansion clubs value, but only if they are still under contract and eligible when the draft takes place.

These are the kinds of players expansion teams hunt for. NHL-ready guys who can come in and play right away, while also providing inexpensive production. All traits that overlap with Chayka's most recent signings.

This matters more than losing fringe prospects who may not make the NHL any way. The Las Vegas Golden Knights built a contender right away because they found the players who could get into games and contribute. You can't protect every player, and expansion franchises feast on that uncertainty.

If the Leafs have to go through the expansion process twice, then Chayka is at risk of losing the pieces he worked so hard to acquire this summer. The Leafs don't have to worry about losing stars. They have to worry about losing depth.

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