The draft lottery odds for the Maple Leafs look promising until you read the fine print about Boston
Photo credit: David Kirouac-Imagn Images
The draft odds for Toronto look solid, and they very well could get themselves their first-rounder, however a deeper look shows they're still giving Boston a leg up.
Now with the NHL regular season over and the playoffs kicking off, that means the attention turns to the Toronto Maple Leafs and that all important 2026 first-round pick. They could luck out and get themselves a franchise star, but they could also find themselves handing it right to their rivals.
Granted, the team has an 8.5% chance of getting the first overall pick, but the main focus here is making sure they land in the top five in general. That at least gives them chance to bring in a superstar this year and perhaps kickstart their retool a lot quicker.
Bruins still going to earn a pick from the Maple Leafs even with a top-five pick
However, if you take a look at some of the conditions attached to the pick — Boston still gets themselves a pick regardless.
With the Maple Leafs able to get their 2026 first-rounder with a bit of luck, the Bruins due to the conditions of the trade will still get Toronto's first-rounder in 2027.
Though, if that's also protected; then Toronto gets to decide who between Philadelphia and Boston gets the 2028 first; and the other gets the 2027 one.
If the Maple Leafs had lost only a couple more games and weren't pushing things to the extra frame, then they wouldn't be so worried about the Bruins stealing their pick, but given they have a 44% chance of falling out of the top five in to 6th place; that's horrible news.
Toronto already gave them a future star in Fraser Minten, and if they were to hand them a pick this year it would hurt more than in 2027 or 2028 given we don't exactly know what the entire prospect pool is going to look like; you'd rather shoot for a Gavin McKenna or Chase Reid now and solidify things.
What Toronto should do if they lose their pick to the Bruins
If Toronto does end up losing the pick to the Bruins this season, yes it sucks but when the breaks don't go away — you need to adapt.
Losing that pick is not the end of the world and instead of panicking about what they lost, they need to buckle down and focus on what they have. You still have a ton of talent, there's still picks to use in other deals if they so choose; and there's still free agents out there to be signed.
You've already been burned by Boston several times before starting with Tuukka Rask and ending with Fraser Minten. While there's going to be frustration if that happens again, the best revenge is to beat them down next year.
Just because they have the pick and select someone doesn't mean they are going to end up succeeding, and if Toronto truly starts to play like bastards as Anthony Stolarz wants then it might not matter in the end.
So it's going to end up with Boston getting a pick either way, they have to. But it could be a couple years away and buy Toronto enough time to get themselves back on the road to success.
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