Nick Paul came over as a way to shore up the toughness, defence and add some scoring but after a dismal 15-point season in 2025-26, it's a risk, no doubt.
When the Toronto Maple Leafs traded for Nick Paul, it was seen as a deal that really came out of nowhere. Not only was Paul never publicly on Toronto's radar, but the team decided that he was worth trading away young goaltender Dennis Hildeby for.
That alone turned some heads, and while Paul has been a thorn in the side of the Maple Leafs for years, losing a player like Hildeby is tough especially when you already have concerns about Anthony Stolarz's injury history.
Nick Paul's injury history explains his decline but also enhances the risk for Toronto
What's even tougher to swallow is the fact that while Paul is a very solid player, he is coming off one of his worst seasons ever both physically and statistically - and there is no real guarantee about who we're going to get.
To say that Paul struggled in 2025-26 would be an understatement. Only appearing in 55 games due to various injuries and recovering from offseason wrist surgery, Paul really never got his feet under him and was a shell of the player the Lightning have had for the past five seasons. Also, prior to this injury filled year he had back-to back 20-goal seasons, so clearly he's got the offensive chops.
Surgery and a lower-body injury would certainly explain the decline but it's also going to add to the risk. You already traded a great goalie prospect for a bottom-six forward, so if he's only able to appear in a handful of games due to injury; it's a horrible deal - and if Hildeby shines? Forget about it.
From 2021-2022 to 2024-25, Paul only missed a total of 10 games combined, so last year was certainly an outlier, and we'll have to see how he manages in an enhanced role in Toronto though, for the Mississauga native he's just thrilled to be able to wear the Maple Leaf at all.
Toronto is betting that his role on the team is worth more than 15 points
But there's obviously a reason why John Chayka targeted Paul and was willing to give up Hildeby to do so which was his defensive game and ability to agitate and frustrate opponents. The team wanted to improve the bottom-six's tenacity and they got one of the most tenacious players in the bunch.
Paul is a top-tier defender with above average face-off skills, a bunch of physicality, elite penalty killing, and despite being someone who causes a lot of problems for opponents, is quite disciplined all things considered.
Plus, he's huge. At 6-foot-4, and over 230 pounds, he's going to add another big body presence on the ice to intimidate and frustrate the opposition. Imagine that train of a human being barrelling in on you at 23 MPH - yeah, not fun.
But he'll have to really be that defensive killer if he wants to make up for a lack of production, though depending on who his flanking him, he could come back to that 20-goal form we've seen previously.
Toronto gave up a pretty hefty sum for Paul because he's going to be someone who helps give them the defensive help they need, though he'll have to prove that he's worth the price and it starts this October.
Will Nick Paul be able to score 20 goals for the Maple Leafs?
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