NHL expansion is no longer based entirely on outside speculation. The league has entered a six-month evaluation process with the Friedkin family regarding a potential franchise in Houston or Austin, while Atlanta and Arizona remain under discussion.
While the next two or three years teams can plan for, beyond that the possibilities are too hard to predict with expansion.
But if rumours do come to fruition, any long-term contracts the Maple Leafs have already signed would impact how they handle the expansion draft.
In the next few seasons, each contract structure becomes increasingly important the sooner the expansion comes. With a history of making a mistake or two in the expansion draft, the Maple Leafs are likely hoping to learn from their past mistakes.
No-movement clauses could limit Toronto's options under the previous expansion rules
Long-term deals and upcoming contracts will dictate how the Maple Leafs move forward.
These contracts and cap hits could play a huge part in who is taken, left vulnerable, or who is not taken if they have a horrendous contract.
If the NHL reuses the Seattle format, teams could protect either seven forwards, three defensemen and one goalie, or eight skaters and one goalie. Players carrying active no-movement clauses had to be included, while first- and second-year professionals and unsigned draft picks were exempt.
Things like a movable contract become valuable to expansion teams if they start poorly and to get long-term assets in draft picks or prospects.
Things like no-movement clauses become incredibly relevant because it essentially forces the team to use a protection spot on a player if they do not want to move.
So someone like Nylander, Tanev, or Raddysh will require protection spots if they won't waive their NMC before the draft.
A bad contract with trade protection might force the Leafs into leaving someone more valuable available.
Of course, having no actual draft date set in stone means you can't have exact predictions.
From here on out, management will have to consider more than just term and cap hit when it comes to future contracts if they want to stay ahead of the curve.
Teams that recklessly hand out contracts might be forced into an incredibly difficult spot.
Handing out no-movement clauses has become incredibly common recently; someone like Chris Tanev, who is on a very risky contract with a full no-move clause, could leave someone else open, which hurts the team further.
Toronto's young players may be exempt before they ever require protection
Prospect eligibility is going to be tough to speculate, cause a player like Koblar could still be exempt in his second year under the Seattle rules.
This team has some young established talent on it, including a first overall pick and one of the best power forwards in the NHL. And if young players develop further, you could see the Maple Leafs leave a veteran or two exposed to be taken in the draft.
And that will change the timeline on things to come, but an expansion draft might make the front office pick a direction before they wanted to.
And with Matthews only having two years left on his deal, who knows if he will be a part of the conversation come expansion time.
Alternatively, you could see the Leafs cough up draft compensation to avoid the expansion draft and get creative with their moves, but it would likely not be as cheap as fans would like, and teams sometimes get creative with the expansion draft.
Toronto's experience with Jared McCann shows how the protection format can force a difficult evaluation. The Maple Leafs acquired McCann shortly before the 2021 draft but protected four forwards and four defensemen, leaving both McCann and Alexander Kerfoot available. Seattle selected McCann, who later scored 40 goals in a season for the Kraken.
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