NHL Analyst Reveals Eye-Opening Contract Projection for Matthew Knies
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Matthew Knies is set for a big raise after his breakout season and according to NHL analyst Ryan Ma -- he's set to have a massive increase in his annual value.
With all the headlines surrounding the Maple Leafs trade talks, and the potential of Mitch Marner signing a new deal with the team or walking in free agency, one thing has been put on the back burner -- Matthew Knies' next contract.
A restricted free agent at season's end, Toronto can't afford to lose out on such a star player and with him barely scratching the surface of his potential, the team needs to lock him up.
Knies, 22, is in the midst of a huge season. With 21 goals and 15 assists in 51 games -- he has the potential to hit 30+ goals in only his second full season.
This type of production means a big payday in ahead of Knies, and according to NHL analyst and scout Ryan Ma -- it's going to be a hefty, long-term deal.
Let's break it down.
Matthew Knies Expected To Earn $20M+ For Next Deal: Ryan Ma
It hasn't just been the offensive production on the scoresheet that's impressive for Knies, but it's how he's done it. As Ma states:
Knies has 89 shots, 118 scoring chances for, and 81 high-danger chances for already on the year, compared to 115, 126, and 83 respectively last year.
Already on pace to shatter those numbers, Knies has emerged as an elite front of the net presence who can consistently get rebounds or provide tips and screens for his teammates.
Ma also compares Knies' breakout to two New York Rangers players -- namely Chris Kreider and Alexis Lafrenière.
Like Knies, Kreider played two NHL regular seasons during his ELC. His post-ELC was a short-term, two-year, $2.475M AAV deal.
Kreider would score back-to-back 21-goal seasons, tallying 46 points in the first season and 43 points in the second season. This production earned him a four-year $4.625M AAV contract.
Kreider would score back-to-back 21-goal seasons, tallying 46 points in the first season and 43 points in the second season. This production earned him a four-year $4.625M AAV contract.
But Ma also explains how Kreider's contract was signed with a much lower cap, and compares Knies to a more recent pick in Lafrenière:
A more recent comparable is perhaps Kreider's teammate Alexis Lafrenière. The former first-overall pick in the 2020 NHL Draft has not lived up to his draft pedigree expectations.
While he has played with top-line players previously, he currently plays on the second line with Vincent Trocheck and Will Cuylle.
Lafrenière also sees second unit power play minutes, whereas Knies sees first unit power play minutes.
He played all three seasons of his ELC, scoring 21 points, 31 points, and 39 points in his final year. This production earned him a two-year $2.325M AAV contract, which expires at the end of this season.
However, Knies is on pace this season to shatter Lafrenière's best ELC season by a wide margin.
Furthermore, Knies has played the majority of his career facing opposing teams' best lines and penalty killers, making a Lafrenière post-ELC unlikely.
While he has played with top-line players previously, he currently plays on the second line with Vincent Trocheck and Will Cuylle.
Lafrenière also sees second unit power play minutes, whereas Knies sees first unit power play minutes.
He played all three seasons of his ELC, scoring 21 points, 31 points, and 39 points in his final year. This production earned him a two-year $2.325M AAV contract, which expires at the end of this season.
However, Knies is on pace this season to shatter Lafrenière's best ELC season by a wide margin.
Furthermore, Knies has played the majority of his career facing opposing teams' best lines and penalty killers, making a Lafrenière post-ELC unlikely.
So how much is Knies ACTUALLY going to cost?
According to Ma, Knies is going to get paid. He evaluates both his value to Toronto and to the open market:
On the open market, he is a 22-year-old player with unrealized potential and is having a breakout year.
However, he is playing with Marner and Matthews on the first line, and receives first unit power play time. How would he perform on the second line with limited power play time?
Of course, this argument goes both ways. His camp will argue that he is playing against the best players and penalty killers every night.
This leads to his worth to the Maple Leafs, and where Knies holds significant bargaining power because there is no one on the team who has his skillset.
However, he is playing with Marner and Matthews on the first line, and receives first unit power play time. How would he perform on the second line with limited power play time?
Of course, this argument goes both ways. His camp will argue that he is playing against the best players and penalty killers every night.
This leads to his worth to the Maple Leafs, and where Knies holds significant bargaining power because there is no one on the team who has his skillset.
Personally, you need to lock him up long-term and pay him both a contract that plays well into a future cap, but gives him the money he deserves.
I would argue Knies needs to be given a five or six year deal worth $5.25M. That equates to a minimum of $26.25M and a maximum of $31.5M -- a huge bargain with the cap slated to increase to $113.5M in three years.
But what does Ma think?
The hope for the fanbase and organization is that Knies signs a long-term, team-friendly deal.
However, with the Maple Leafs' stars preferring to take shorter-term big-dollar contracts to maximize career earnings with inflation and a rising salary cap, Knies will probably follow their lead.
With that, probably something between the $4.5M-$6.5M AAV range for 4-6 years is fair for both sides.
The Maple Leafs get cost certainty for 4-6 years and the last few years of the contract will likely be a bargain assuming Knies continues his development trajectory and the salary cap continues to increase.
Knies gets security in term and is slightly overpaid during the first couple of years of the contract.
However, with the Maple Leafs' stars preferring to take shorter-term big-dollar contracts to maximize career earnings with inflation and a rising salary cap, Knies will probably follow their lead.
With that, probably something between the $4.5M-$6.5M AAV range for 4-6 years is fair for both sides.
The Maple Leafs get cost certainty for 4-6 years and the last few years of the contract will likely be a bargain assuming Knies continues his development trajectory and the salary cap continues to increase.
Knies gets security in term and is slightly overpaid during the first couple of years of the contract.
Buying in on Matthew Knies gives Toronto his best years, and him just reaching his prime (which if his current trajectory keeps going, it's going to be elite) will land him a huge increase come next deal -- with a presumably higher cap to help out too.
Toronto needs to figure other things out with Mitch Marner, John Tavares and their trade deadline situation. But they should really get Matthew Knies locked up and knock off one huge thing off their summer to-do list.
| POLL | ||
FEVRIER 15 | 563 ANSWERS NHL Analyst Reveals Eye-Opening Contract Projection for Matthew Knies What would you pay Matthew Knies per year for his next contract? | ||
| $4.5M | 194 | 34.5 % |
| $5.5M | 227 | 40.3 % |
| $6.5M | 96 | 17.1 % |
| $7M+ | 46 | 8.2 % |
| List of polls | ||
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