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New Data Reveals the Side of Morgan Rielly's Game Leafs Fans Don't Want to See


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Charlie McAfee
July 29, 2025  (6:46 PM)
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May 5, 2025; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Toronto Maple Leafs defenseman Morgan Rielly (44) scores as Florida Panthers forward Brad Marchand (63) trails the play during the first period of the second round of the 2025 Stanley Cup Playoffs at Scotiabank Arena. Mandatory Credit: John E. Sokolowski-Imagn Images
Photo credit: John E. Sokolowski-Imagn Images

Some new information from a fan-made analytics card shows that Morgan Rielly's game has severely regressed and his future as a number one defender is in doubt.

There was a lot of concern last season about Morgan Rielly and whether or not he would be able to keep up his offensive prowess or if he would begin to regress now that he's on the wrong side of 30.
Well, we got a bit of both as Rielly put in a decent season with 41 points but also looked a step or two behind, plus was not nearly as physical as in previous years; but wasn't better defensively.
He's expected to be a big part of the offense again now that Mitch Marner is gone, but some new stats might show that he's not near the level Toronto needs him to be anymore.

What the Numbers Say About Rielly's Defensive Impact

According to PAVEL Analytics on X, Rielly's become all too predictable and is good when he's scoring; but not much else:
Morgan Rielly is an interesting case, as what you see is what you get from the player (high predictability). The offence comes when he's scoring and moving his feet; the defence is suspect and he doesn't hit/block a lot. He's a good #3-4 at this point in his career.
Comparisons offensively include Martin Fehervary (a staunch stay at home defender with Washington) and defensively Miro Heiskanen (if only Rielly had his offensive chops).
But the biggest is that he's most like Brett Kulak according to PAVEL, who right now would be a 3/4 or 5/6 defender now. That's a huge regression point for Rielly, and he needs to pick things up drastically offensively if he wants to make up for any defensive shortcomings (and be better than a 4D).

Why the Leafs May Need to Rethink His Usage This Season

Hopefully that will help considering he'll get a full year of Brandon Carlo, but that doesn't mean he can get complacent.
Looking at Rielly's worst season (27 points in 2016-2017) that came in 76 games but also came at a time when he was 22 years old and still finding his footing in the league.
12 years into his career, what's the excuse? He's had plenty of time to make strides and keep being an offensive star (heck, he even scored 20 goals) but he's allergic to shooting the puck now, and he's hurting the team.
Is Toronto going to say "Well, no more Marner, Rielly takes power play duties" or are they going to perhaps employ a shutdown defender like Chris Tanev in that role in order to cover a potential breakout or 2 on 1; rather him than Rielly.
But maybe if Toronto is worried about his offense-focused game hurting them in the defensive end, Craig Berube should look to bring him in...for the top-six.
Imagine Morgan Rielly on the left side of John Tavares and William Nylander. Rielly is a great playmaker, as is Tavares and all three men have the capability to score.
Perhaps it'll give Rielly more confidence to shoot the puck more and hope that translates when he moves back.
What's the harm in trying for a few games? Toronto has more than enough defensive help, and their lineup is deeper than ever and great defensively all things considered; they can cover for him.
Morgan Rielly might be viewed as a #3 or #4 defenseman now, but perhaps his calling won't be on the blueline at all.
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JUILLET 29   |   808 ANSWERS
New Data Reveals the Side of Morgan Rielly's Game Leafs Fans Don't Want to See

Do you think Morgan Rielly will regress this season or bounce back?

Regress35644.1 %
Bounce Back45255.9 %
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