The Toronto Maple Leafs did a lot to change their playoff hopes for 2026-27 but the latest odds still paint them as a team headed for the golf course in April.
Toronto addressed multiple ways to improve the lineup in order to make them competitive for 2026-27. They added Sergei Bobrovsky, Darren Raddysh and also, brought in Nick Paul, Colton Sissons, and Teddy Blueger to cover the bottom-six while giving Gavin McKenna a chance to grow - but it still only gives Toronto 40% odds to make the playoffs.
However, they also had some hefty competition this summer as the Florida Panthers improved by adding Brady Tkachuk, meanwhile Tampa added John Carlson and Ilya Mikheyev, and they still need to contend with the likes of Montreal as well which is always a tough matchup.
Toronto's range of outcomes remains wider than the offseason moves indicate
Though on the outside it looks like Toronto has a much better shot at making the postseason, their current odds paint a different picture.
Right now, HockeyStats.com has the Toronto Maple Leafs playoff odds at only 40% with the Lightning as their likeliest first round opponent (9%) with only a 1% chance of winning the Stanley Cup altogether; that's 60% odds they miss out.
Daily Faceoff also analyzed Toronto's playoff odds and put them in a 'foggy window' category where there are too many question marks that could end up succeeding or failing:
Maybe big-ticket UFA signing Darren Raddysh repeats his age-29 breakout...maybe Bobrovsky still has a good season left in him. Or maybe it's all too little, too late for a team that was bad last season and saw its window close when Mitch Marner left.
They do however believe Toronto could make a fantastic redemption story based off of last season, and if not - pivot to building around McKenna.
The Maple Leafs changed nearly everything after their collapse and it still may not be enough
Both HockeyStats and Daily Faceoff having hesitancy on the Maple Leafs making the playoffs is certainly down to how these new pieces will fit into the equation and it makes sense given there's still some question marks.
Indeed, all those scenarios posed by Daily Faceoff all have positives. Raddysh coming in and solidifying the offensive side of things on the blueline? McKenna coming into his own immediately? Bobrovsky being the stud we know he can be? All very good signs of a postseason berth.
But all of those have a negative side to things too. Raddysh's production last year was an anomaly compared to his previous output and there's no guarantee it was anything more than right, place, right time. He's also not exactly young, so committing to him until his late 30s is a big risk if the offence dries up.
McKenna has seemingly unlimited potential but also is a teenager who has yet to step foot into an NHL game. We'll only get a better idea of his comfort level after a few games, and it's too early to thrust him into the spotlight and be the saviour Toronto needs - he doesn't mind pressure but that doesn't mean you force him into those situations.
Another big question mark is Bobrovsky and whether last year was just a product of the entire Panthers team having a down season. He's a Vezina winner and two-time Cup winner but he's also no spring chicken either with him soon to be 38, and his backup isn't promising.
Anthony Stolarz, while great when healthy, is unable to stay that way historically and without a safety net of Joseph Woll and Dennis Hildeby now, if Bobrovsky struggles or gets hurt and Stolarz can't perform well enough - they have limited options.
You can't deny that the Maple Leafs overall improved their lineup but now it comedown to results which will be the only thing that makes or breaks Toronto's playoff hopes this season.
Until Raddysh proves last year wasn't a one-off, Bobrovsky can prove he can handle a full workload at 38, and McKenna proves he's everything he's expected to be - those around the league are still remaining cautious about Toronto's playoff odds.
Do you think the Maple Leafs have better odds of making the playoffs than analysts believe?
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