Ethan MacKenzie scored once every 2.7 games last season, but Toronto's real test is whether that offence survives with less time and space.
His 22 goals and 58 points in 59 games nearly made him a point-per-game defenceman. For Toronto, the useful evaluation is how often he can still create after his first option disappears: escaping pressure, getting pucks through traffic and recovering when an activation fails.
Now, MacKenzie will attend the team's showcase, and it is here that he will be able to show if his skills translate when the pressure is on.
Twenty-two goals from defence changes what Toronto should be looking for at the showcase
Given his offensive production last season, the Leafs will be looking for more than just a solid defenseman. Instead, they will also be looking for someone who can create offense without sacrificing defensive positioning.
Team evaluators will want to see his activation timing, his ability to get shots through traffic, his proficiency at joining the rush, and his recovery when possessions go the other way.
Goal totals in junior hockey are one thing. They can disappear quickly. They depend on time and space that simply isn't available in the professional game.
Now, the Leafs will get to see if MacKenzie's 22-goal season talents translate to the NHL game. Toronto doesn't need to learn whether MacKenzie can score in junior. They already know that. Instead, they need to learn whether the way he scores can survive faster hockey.
MacKenzie's skating will show whether Toronto drafted a scorer or an NHL puck-mover
MacKenzie previously told NHL.com that his skating his largely responsible for why he will be able to excel at the NHL level.
That's a big thing that'll take me to the next level, is being able to escape all these guys and be able to outmaneuver them
This is an important trait to have for an offensive defenseman. Better skating allows him to escape pressure, create separation, recover after joining the rush, and carry his offense against faster players.
Now that MacKenzie is going to North Dakota this season, he faces a controlled test of whether his biggest weakness can catch up to his biggest strength.
If the skating reaches NHL level, Toronto may have a far more valuable prospect than his third-round draft position suggests. If it doesn't, the 22-goal season may remain mostly a junior-hockey accomplishment.
Will Ethan MacKenzie excel at the NHL level?
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