Maple Leafs need Auston Matthews back at 50 goals even if it makes his next deal more expensive

The Toronto Maple Leafs' ideal Auston Matthews season creates an interesting contract dilemma. The better he plays now, the more expensive he will become in the Summer of 2028.

Matthews is going to become a free agent in 2027-28, and the forward is going to be demanding a pretty penny, especially with guys like Cale Makar making over $20 million per season.

If Matthews cannot regain his old scoring touch, he won't be worth nearly as much. However, if he starts scoring like the Matthews of old, then his next contract could be monumental. While this would cost the Leafs dearly, it's also a necessity, as the Leafs need Matthews to be an all-time great scorer in order to have any shot at winning.

A 50-goal rebound would move Matthews back toward the NHL's new $20M superstar tier

Makar just established $20.4M as the NHL's highest AAV, while Macklin Celebrini signed for $18.8M beginning in 2027-28.

Matthews' current $13.25-million deal represented 15.06% of the cap when it began. A $20-million contract under a hypothetical $130-million ceiling would represent roughly 15.4%, almost the same cap burden despite being nearly $7 million more expensive.

Over the last two seasons, Matthews has struggled with injuries. He played 60 games last season, and the year before that, he played 67. While the absences explain his decline in production, there is no denying that the averages are down also.

However, if Matthews can rebound to a 50-goal season under head coach Jim Hiller, he regains his negotiating power. The Leafs wouldn't be able to use the previous two seasons as a metric to bring his potential salary down.

Contract negotiations price what a player is expected to be during the next deal, not just what he was at his peak. If Matthews can showcase a league-best goal-scoring touch over the next two seasons, then his next contract AAV goes up exponentially.

A 50-goal season for Matthews would help the Leafs win games, but it would also make his negotiating power that much stronger. This is a Catch-22 for Toronto, albeit a necessary one for this team's short-term and long-term success.

Toronto needs the version of Matthews that could cost them millions more

The Leafs cannot rationally hope that Matthews continues to have subpar seasons, just so that he can be signed for a lower AAV. At that point, his value to the Leafs would be at an all-time low.

Ultimately, they need elite finishing from Matthews in order to contend. The paradox is that this kind of season would push his next contract closer to the newest superstar-market benchmarks. While the cap is growing alongside this market, it still creates a crunch for the Leafs' front office.

Toronto's best hockey outcome and its easiest contract outcome are pulling in opposite directions. If Matthews gets back to being Matthews, the Leafs should expect to pay for it. However, that is not necessarily a bad thing.

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