Auston Matthews was in the defensive zone 65% more under Craig Berube and as you can see from his drop-off in goals - it played a huge factor the past two years.
For the last two seasons, Maple Leafs fans have seen Auston Matthews go from the premier scorer in the NHL to a player who struggles to hit 30 goals. There were some injury concerns involved that certainly played a part, however it's his usage drawing the most ire.
Craig Berube gave Auston Matthews much more defensive responsibility and it shows
Under Craig Berube, Matthews was seen as more of a defensive centre and it shows. He spent 16.3% of all his starts in the defensive end in 2024-25 and 13.5% in 2025-26. Comparatively, he spent only 9.9% in the defensive zone in 2023-24 under Sheldon Keefe, and in 2022-23 it was even lower at only 5.2%.
His defensive starts doubled under Berube as he was trying to utilize Matthews' genuine defensive talents to help create a stronger group even at the cost of offence. He spent so much time trying to kill penalties and help clean up his defence's messes that the scoring chances weren't there.
Matthews suddenly went from 69 goals in 2023-24 to 33 goals in 2024-25, then only 27 goals in 2025-26 before a season-ending knee injury. His 36-goal drop-off in a year's span is startling, and that discrepancy is a goal total that any NHL player would love to have in general - it just shows how steep the drop was.
You can't expect Matthews to spend two minutes in his own zone fighting for possession then be able to use any energy to turn up ice and score; that's a lot to ask of anyone.
As the captain, he leads by example and perhaps that was what Berube was trying to get Matthews to do defensively so the rest would follow suit. But it didn't play to his true strengths, and it came at a cost of offence for the entire Maple Leafs.
Matthews' shooting decline shows that deployment wasn't the only factor in the drop-off
But even if he was getting more offensive zone time, his shooting would still be a concern. His past two seasons he had 488 shots on goal. The two seasons prior to that? 696. 208 shots is an unbelievably high number and even if you account that one in every ten shots go in - that's nearly an extra 21 goals over two seasons.
That would have pushed Matthews' total up to 43 goals in 2024-25 and 37 in 2025-26 had he put up the same shot totals, but he just didn't look comfortable. Gone was the quick release and it took a couple extra seconds for him to make a decision and that cost him prime chances.
He went from an 18.7% shooting percentage in 2023-24 to only 12.6% in 2024-25. He just wasn't shooting, and when he was, it wasn't effective. Toronto also had so many defensive issues that they couldn't generate as many offensive chances as they could previously, and that prevents Matthews from taking more shots.
His injuries in 2024-25 can be pointed to as well, given that they were a back and wrist injury; two key parts of his lethal shot. He's missed 37 games total the past two seasons, and getting into a rhythm was nigh impossible.
But he's healthy this summer and is poised to get back on track thanks to the new additions to the lineup. He'll be covered defensively and won't need to make as many starts, plus he'll have motivation to be better coming off those two down seasons.
Was Craig Berube the sole reason why Auston Matthews dropped off?
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