Kirill Marchenko's contract stance could open a new trade path for the Maple Leafs

Kirill Marchenko's apparent willingness to reach restricted free agency may eventually create an opening for the Toronto Maple Leafs to acquire him after all.

The Athletic's Aaron Portzline recently suggested that Columbus Blue Jackets forward Kirill Marchenko is willing to forgo an extension this season and wants to see what July 1 has in store in terms of any potential offers:

He's an RFA after this year; the Blue Jackets do not expect that he's gonna be [extended] before this season starts; I think he wants to go to July 1st and see what's out there.

Marchenko, 25, put up his fourth-straight 20+ goal season and had 67 points in 76 games for the Blue Jackets in 2025-26. Currently making only $3.85-million, with the rise of young superstars signing for big money - he's also in line for a substantial raise.

The Maple Leafs are a team who could absolutely use him but don't have the necessary assets to offer sheet him, but a potential trade centred around a short-term extension could open up the door for John Chayka to acquire him.

Toronto's offer sheet limitations make a negotiated trade a cleaner route

Now, there is a chance that throughout the year the Maple Leafs are able to re-acquire the assets necessary to sign Marchenko to an offer sheet - but that's about slim to none. Those have to be their own picks, and even then Columbus has the right to match.

Instead, a trade built around giving Marchenko a few years to compete and raise his stock in Toronto before settling into a larger and longer deal in his prime may be the answer.

Marchenko could commit to a two-year extension at a higher AAV in order to head into free agency as he enters his prime which would allow him to cash in when the cap rises to a projected $123-million in 2028-29.

Or, if he feels like he wants to compete in Toronto he can sign for an extra year at a slightly lower AAV while also having a better chance at making the postseason while learning alongside stars like Auston Matthews, John Tavares, and William Nylander. Marchenko would round out the top-six and give Toronto a reliable scorer who's still yet to enter his prime.

A short extension is the most appealing option to both Toronto and Marchenko

While it seems a bit counterintuitive to acquire a player with the risk of him leaving only a couple years after, both sides benefit. Toronto brings in a top-six winger who can add 20 goals on a short-term deal without having to worry about money down the line, and if for some reason Marchenko doesn't work out - there's less risk of it being a long-term issue.

Marchenko on the other hand gets a significant pay raise while being able to be featured alongside stars. He'd have the most talent he's ever played with while also giving him the flexibility to leave if he doesn't see a long-term fit.

To Toronto, having that flexibility to acquire a player and benefit without having to commit long-term allows them to be competitive on the ice and in the free agent market.

Meanwhile that flexibility a player gets to choose his own path while earning a lot more money is also appealing because it allows them the best of both a big payday now and later on.

There's no indication that Toronto and Columbus are woking on a deal but Marchenko and the Maple Leafs could very well come together and strike a deal that works for both sides and give them a easier chance of acquiring him than before.

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