Jason Robertson's arbitration case gives the Leafs a blockbuster trade situation to watch

On July 25, the Dallas Stars and Jason Robertson go to arbitration and with a potential trade in the works prior to that, the Maple Leafs are keeping watch.

The Jason Robertson situation in Dallas has been quite the storyline this offseason. He's one of the best offensive players in the game and is gonna earn a lot of money. But Dallas can't necessarily afford that, and if Robertson is going to get the amount he's expected to, then the Stars are going to be deep in the red.

Not only do they have to worry about future implications but also have only nine days to figure out what they will do before he heads to arbitration. While the team would like to make a deal with the star forward before then, with talks so far apart it seems more and more likely he'll need a mediator.

That could end up turning his potential long-term one into a short-term pact with a lot of money, and Dallas may still be in the same situation come next season, so it's not like anything changes.

A blockbuster Robertson deal would cost the Maple Leafs an absolute fortune

So the team may then be more willing to open up the door to a trade, and perhaps Robertson will be open to a move. If so, then the Maple Leafs are a team that should keep an eye out regardless of the cost because as we know - that cost is going to be astronomical.

You're talking Matthew Knies at least, perhaps even a player like Easton Cowan (Gavin McKenna is off the table) at the base. Then you give them the 2027 Colorado 1st-rounder, plus you need to get more money off the books so you'll likely need to deal Dakota Joshua or even an injured Max Domi on top to make the financial aspect work.

This is a player who has 40+ goals three times already in his career, just came off a 45-goal, 96-point season, is averaging over point-per-game for his career, has a plus-117 rating, above average to elite defensive skills who is just coming into his prime years.

A Robertson contract will be even harder for Toronto to absorb going forward

That's going to cost you, and if you're going to be paying Robertson $14 or $15-million per year, then hopefully you saved enough room for Auston Matthews in 2028.

So here's a potential framework for a deal, but it's going to be a lot harder to actually get it done than on paper:

To Toronto:

(F) Jason Robertson (RFA)

To Dallas:

(F) Matthew Knies
(F) Dakota Joshua
(D) Philippe Myers
2027 1st (COL)
2028 2nd (TOR)

That's a massive payment and you're losing a young superstar in Knies on a dirt-cheap deal, but you do open up roster space for the new additions to replace Joshua and Myers. The picks won't matter because Toronto is focused on winning now, but it's still a huge payment because nothing's guaranteed.

It also still doesn't give Toronto enough money to work with to sign Robertson, and they would still need a Morgan Rielly deal to appear; though maybe there's a world where a three-team trade can dump Rielly and bring in Robertson at the same time.

But what happens when Gavin McKenna needs a new deal long-term? Auston Matthews is only here until 2028 like the majority of signings, and John Tavares can only play for so long.

The team could go from a star-studded group to one that has just McKenna, Nylander, and Cowan to build around, and at that point - Nylander is 32.

So you're paying a lot of your future assets for a player whose contract may end up costing you a lot more players including your captain. There's no doubt that Robertson is a superstar, but if they pull this off then it tells Matthews that they've moved on, and McKenna and Robertson will be the new power-duo.

After all the tension and question marks this offseason - Is that the message you want to send the leader of your team before the season even starts?

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