This offseason, the Maple Leafs gave Jack Roslovic a two-year, $8-million contract after a 21-goal season in Edmonton, immediately raising the question of whether Toronto paid for sustainable production or a career-high shooting stretch.
Going into last season, Roslovic was a player that the Maple Leafs had been contemplating, but never pulled the trigger on. This time around, the Leafs wasted no time, especially given the Auston Matthews connection. For those who don't know, they played in the U.S. National Team Development Program together.
While all of this sounds great, the Leafs committed two years and $8 million to the forward. He is a player who still has quite a bit to prove, and one has to wonder: is Roslovic's contract justified?
Roslovic's 21-goal season came with numbers Toronto should be careful projecting forward
Jack Roslovic found himself in a good situation with the Edmonton Oilers last season. They gave him a chance to showcase his offensive talents, especially with a 60.4 percent offensive-zone start rate, according to Hockey-Reference.
His 21 goals came in a favourable offensive role, with 60.4 percent of his zone starts coming in the offensive end, while his 14.9 percent shooting rate also finished above his career average. That makes it fair to question how much of the scoring carries over to Toronto.
That said, Roslovic has had his fair share of bad seasons in the single-digit goals. He has proven to be an inconsistent player, and it is impossible to predict what Roslovic will do, which makes that $4 million AAV price tag a hard one to swallow.
One issue facing the Leafs is their lack of depth in the middle of the lineup. The addition of Nick Paul is a step in the right direction, but Roslovic remains a better scorer. The cleaner comparison is Nick Robertson, who signed in Pittsburgh for $3.25 million after scoring 16 goals and 32 points last season. Toronto is paying Roslovic $750,000 more per year for a player with more NHL experience, more positional versatility and back-to-back 20-goal seasons. That premium is reasonable if those traits translate, but it still has to be earned.
In pure hockey value, the $4 million price tag is justifiable as far as the market is concerned. That said, Roslovic has a reputation of being unpredictable.
Auston Matthews may be the one thing Roslovic gives Toronto that cheaper options cannot
Roslovic does have one advantage cheaper alternatives may not: familiarity with Matthews from their U.S. National Team Development Program days. That does not guarantee NHL chemistry, but it gives Toronto one less relationship to build from scratch.
Furthermore, Roslovic has made it clear that Matthews helped him move to Toronto, while also introducing him to the staff. In just a short amount of time, a rapport has been established.
These little things can go a long way in making a player feel at home. Roslovic won't have that fish-out-of-water feeling in Toronto, and that could help him be an immediate fit anywhere in the lineup.
The Leafs will need to be careful about their expectations. Roslovic projects as a middle-six forward, but Toronto still has to determine whether he can hold that role consistently enough to justify the $4-million cap hit. While $4 million per season is a steep price, that is simply the market for a player of his caliber. The Leafs still have holes to fill, and the team will be hopeful that Roslovic outperforms his contract. Not something you can bank on.
Roslovic's familiarity with Matthews may help him settle in, but it cannot be the reason the contract works. Toronto paid for a player coming off back-to-back 20-goal seasons who can move around the lineup and support a faster transition game. If that version of Roslovic shows up, $4 million is defensible. If the scoring falls back and the versatility does not separate him, the Leafs will have paid a premium for production they could not count on.
Will Jack Roslovic prove his worth for the Toronto Maple Leafs?
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