Insiders Predict What's Next for John Tavares and Matthew Knies as Free Agency Nears

As the 2024-25 season ended in heartbreak for the Maple Leafs, the 2025-26 season will open up with optimism. This team is going to look different, but with a different vision and a changed roster; change is scary but it could be successful.

A different looking lineup is definitely due to the departures of Mitch Marner and John Tavares.

While the former is pretty much gone, and the latter wants to stay; nothing is set in stone yet and nothing is guaranteed, but they still have a star waiting for a deal in Matthew Knies, with no indication of an extension.

Toronto would love to keep Tavares, and as much as they'd love to have Knies for cheaper that's not going to happen. So what's it going to cost them exactly?

According to NHL Insider David Pagnotta; quite a steal; for the former captain at least.

Pagnotta believes that Tavares would sign for a deal around $5M which would be an over 50% pay cut from his current contract, and while he guesses it to be a two-year pact, could become longer with a cheaper AAV.

For Knies, he believes a potential 3-5 year term worth $8M per season is sufficient, and this was echoed by NHL Insider Chris Johnston as well who guessed the same figure though might be slightly underneath that total.

That's a steal for Toronto, especially if he can keep up his production levels from this season.

In 75 games, Tavares had 74 points (38G, 36A), putting up his second-highest goal output since coming over to the team. He put all questions of regression aside, and was a huge reason for Toronto's success.

However, age is always a factor and while he played well now, there's no guarantees for next season or beyond. Paying him $5M would still give him a solid payday but help the team not feel like they wasted time or money committing to an aging veteran.

Knies had a breakout year after breaking out, which is only a good sign of things to come. His 58 points in 78 games was a 23-point increase from last year, and he added 182 hits on top of the impressive offensive production.

He's going to be 23 next season, already nearly a 30-goal scorer, and is a mainstay of Toronto's top line, so $8M a season isn't too far out of the realm of possibility.

While that's not the most expensive, it's still a solid commitment, though that hasn't stopped the team from handing out long-term deals to guys like Max Domi, and Knies is so much better overall a player than Domi it warrants a bigger payday.

The team needs to be careful though, as they can't afford to overcommit to Knies especially knowing what comes after next season.

That means they'll have some excess cash to splash come 2026 Free Agency, and while nothing is guaranteed there either, the chance to land Connor McDavid potentially is too rich to ignore, and that means saving as much money as possible.

That can only mean good news for Toronto, because if it leads to McDavid signing with the club that not only gives them two of the world's best, but a three headed monster with McDavid, Auston Matthews, and a newly signed and motivated John Tavares manning the third line pivot.

Not a bad consolation prize after a decade of misery, and just imagine Knies alongside McDavid and how sweet that duo could end up being.