How the $20-million Connor McDavid projection explains the hidden agenda in Toronto
Photo credit: Griffin Hooper-Imagn Images
Connor McDavid is expected to get at least $20-million on his next deal according to a poll of NHL agents, and it could be why Toronto is taking a cautious approach.
Unequivocally the best player on Earth, Connor McDavid enjoyed yet another of his ridiculous seasons in 2025-26.
With 134 points in 81 games (48 goals, 86 assists) he's absolutely torched the league yet again, and could be a shoe-in for his fourth Hart Trophy.
He's got the playoffs ahead of him and he's trying to exorcise some demons after two straight back to back Stanley Cup Finals losses to the Florida Panthers. McDavid certainly has the talent, but it'll be up to those around him to also contribute.
If they can't however, that makes it another year where he's failed to win it all and with his contract up in 2028, he could be looking to play elsewhere.
Why the agent poll predicting a $20-million salary shifts the entire Toronto timeline
Though if you were to ask some agents around the NHL — he's going to get a massive payday regardless of destination.
The Athletic recently posted a poll surveying NHL agents regarding various topics around the league, and the question of who the highest paid player would be going forward. Many thought it was McDavid, with one agent believing he could eclipse the $20-million mark:
McDavid will get whatever he wants. I think he’s going to be $20 (million).
That's a huge price to pay but when you're talking about someone who will consistently give you 100+ points easily, and take control of the game at a moment's notice — it's worth the price.
For Toronto that means that they may be willing to play things by ear and could be planning a shock signing in 2028. This could also be a way to convince Auston Matthews to stick around; form a two-man power trip with McDavid and dominate the league.
They'll have more than enough money, and if they are going to get rid of some heavy contracts then it'l give them the freedom to make a ridiculous signing — and a fallback in case Matthews skips town anyways.
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Perhaps this is the reason the Maple Leafs haven't made any significant moves, and may feel like taking on some cheaper deals and parting with them without care is due to a bigger plan involved.
By the time 2028 rolls around, the Maple Leafs are projected to have $80-million going into the 2028-29 season. They will likely at that point be moving on from John Tavares, but there are several other deals coming off the books as well.
Max Domi, Steven Lorentz, and Oliver Ekman-Larsson all have their contracts expiring and the team will likely find a way to get Chris Tanev's salary out of the way too.
That is a lot of spots to open up but the hope is that guys like Jacob Quillan, Luke Haymes, Bo Groulx, Easton Cowan, and even perhaps guys like Luc Tinus Koblar and Tyler Hopkins coming in.
Not to mention the slew of NCAA prospects the team could bring in, and if they get lucky then all of a sudden they have a franchise blueliner as well.
All of that would give Toronto the luxury of spending a lot more money on McDavid considering the holes they need to fill are going to be done internally — this is the chance to get the big fish.
So there's a good reason why Toronto is slogging through the mud right now, because once they clean themselves of some pretty bad deals, their saviour is sitting just on the other side with open arms.
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