Gavin McKenna could score 52 points and still miss out on the Calder Trophy

Despite being projected to score 52 points by The Hockey News, Gavin McKenna may miss out on the Calder Trophy given the historical precedence set by other rookies.

In the latest issue of The Hockey News, the magazine delved deep into their predictions for the Toronto Maple Leafs. Besides their standings projections, they also have their own inklings about how certain players are going to perform this season.

Arguably the biggest name with the biggest spotlight is Gavin McKenna, as the 2026 first overall pick has the talent to be a superstar - but also immense pressure. Which is why the article argued that McKenna's first season will be a good one though maybe not as offensively potent as some would hope:

For McKenna's rookie season and hunt for the Calder Trophy, he's predicted to notch 15 goals and 37 assists for 52 points. McKenna's ranked ahead of rookies Ivar Stenberg, Cole Hutson, Konsta Helenius and James Hagens in terms of points.

McKenna's 52-point projection may still leave him below the usual Calder-winning pace

Now, a 52-point rookie season is nothing to ignore, as it's still a very respectable number for an 18-year-old who is making the leap to professional hockey. But 52 points would not guarantee McKenna anything as other factors like draft class strength come into effect.

Nathan MacKinnon scored 63 points his Calder-winning season, Auston Matthews had 69, Macklin Celebrini also had 63 points, Connor Bedard had 61 points and Elias Pettersson had 66.

Matty Beniers won the Calder with 57 points, and Gabriel Landeskog won it with the same amount of points that McKenna's projected to get - 52. It would have to take a lot for the likes of Ivar Stenberg, Viggo Bjorck, and Alberts Smits to slip so far behind that 52 points is the highest total - but it is possible.

Compared with several recent forward winners, 52 points would leave McKenna short of the offensive totals that usually make a rookie an obvious favourite. But Beniers and Landeskog also show that the winning number depends heavily on the year.

Now, 60-64 points isn't the be all, end all for Calder voting, and McKenna's ability to help the Maple Leafs become competitive again will surely also factor in. But historically speaking, he would need to exceed expectations if he wants to make sure he's the 2026-27 rookie of the year.

Toronto's lineup decisions could decide whether McKenna stays at 52 or pushes into Calder territory

Besides historical precedence and other rookies fighting for the same trophy, lineup construction is also going to be a huge factor.

A sheltered middle-six role with limited first-unit power-play time could keep him near that 52-point projection, while regular minutes beside Matthews and premium special-teams usage could push him well beyond it - but a slow start could be the difference between being in a tight point race or creating separation early on.

There's also Easton Cowan - who THN projects to have 47 points - who is going to also be fighting for the premium ice time so Hiller needs to make sure he is able to fit him in at times and not ignore what he can bring to the lineup.

McKenna does not necessarily need to beat 60 points to win the Calder but he does need to separate himself from the rest of the rookie class. It's just going to depend on if he's going to have enough time to distance himself from the rest of the pack.

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