Gavin McKenna could be worth far more to the Maple Leafs than fans realize

While it's obviously a great honour to be first overall pick, Gavin McKenna's selection has a lot more importance than simply being a historical footnote.

On Friday night, the Toronto Maple Leafs drafted Gavin McKenna first overall after months of hype and speculation surrounding not only McKenna but how he will factor into the future of the Maple Leafs franchise going forward.

No doubt is he going to be a cornerstone of the team for years to come and at only 18 he's got a decade before he hits his prime - a scary thought indeed considering how good he is.

There's also a lot of pressure that comes along with the job, and it sounds by all measures that McKenna is going to have no issues thriving under the spotlight in hockey's biggest market, and the fans have a lot to be excited about.

Gavin McKenna could be the reason Toronto becomes competitive right away

But beyond just being a historical footnote in the NHL Draft, and just beyond a generational talent, his draft position is extremely important because if you look deeper you begin to see how vital he's going to be to Toronto's success.

The Athletic's Dom Luszczyszyn wrote an extensive article regarding the value of draft picks and what they can mean for a team. Beyond all the deep analytics, there's a statistic that stands out above the rest.

Luszczyszyn's model has looked at the average wins the last 15 years (2005-2020) from the slew of first overall picks and with his calculations based off various metrics he came down to a staggering 19.5 wins added.

Let's be clear here. That's 19.5 wins based solely off the first overall picks' performances. To be fair though, the leaders in that category are a laundry list of future Hall of Famers or soon to be inductees.

Connor McDavid, Auston Matthews, Sidney Crosby, Jack Hughes, and Patrick Kane rank in the top-five with McDavid having an absurd 39.8 draft value with 5.7 wins added.

Then you add Steven Stamkos, Nathan MacKinnon, John Tavares, Nico Hischier and Taylor Hall into the mix and combined their WAR (Wins Above Replacement) averages out to a 19.5 value (or wins).

Basically what we're saying is - Gavin McKenna is very, very important

There's a lot of information being thrown here, but let's try and simplify things. If McKenna is reponsible for adding 19.5 projected win value to the Maple Leafs, that drastically changes their positioning.

For argument's sake, if Toronto had even a 15-win value player last year, it's projected that would have added 10-15 wins which would have put Toronto's record at 47-21-14 - or good for third in the Atlantic and a playoff spot.

That's how valuable a first overall pick is; and we've seen it with our own eyes for a decade with Auston Matthews.

Imagine now that McKenna is in tow, he'll give the lineup a leg up for sure and in addition to that will have a group of players who are built to protect him and give him every opportunity to thrive.

He'll find chemistry with Matthews and Nylander, he'll find Darren Raddysh for blistering shots from the point, and he'll add some flair with his own scoring too. This is a player with 310 points over his last 3.5 seasons including 99 goals; he's a shooter as much as a playmaker.

If we're going to trust Luszczyszyn's model (and we should, he's a premier name in the hockey world) then you have to know that McKenna coming in will only be a net benefit for the Maple Leafs as they usher in a new era.

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