Everything Maple Leafs fans need to know about tonight’s draft lottery and what is at stake

The Toronto Maple Leafs are hoping that Lady Luck is able to bring some good fortunes to Secaucas on Tuesday night and with only an 8.5% chance of winning the first overall pick — it seems highly unlikely.

In that case fans are just hoping they don't fall out of the top-five, at that point they will give that pick to the Boston Bruins thanks to the Brandon Carlo deal.

Right now, the Maple Leafs have a 24.5% chance of keeping that pick, which is great news but also comes with the caveat that they have a much bigger shot at losing it. It all comes down to how the ping-pong balls fall.

Vancouver has 185 possible combinations out of 1,001; giving them the best odds at 18.5%.

After that, four balls are drawn every 30 seconds to create one four-digit code out of 1,001 possible.

A team can move up only 10 spots, meaning only the teams with the 11 best odds can secure the top pick in the 2026 NHL Draft which means the Canucks actually have a 25.5% chance of landing the first overall pick.

The process is then repeated to decide a second team that can move up to 10 spots then things are filled out based off reverse standings (worst to first).

If John Chayka were to keep the pick and perhaps shoot up in the lottery, it gives him the perfect foundation to start off on the right foot and ensure the Maple Leafs are set up for the future (which may or may not include Auston Matthews).

If he loses the pick to Boston, it's going to make fans even more frustrated and question how he is going to make amends for that. Whether it be a big trade or signing, the clock is ticking for Chayka to make a move if he doesn't get the pick — you have to replace it one way or another.

So whether the numbers are in Toronto's favour or not depends all on the hockey gods.

Let's just hope that whatever ritual and penance Chayka gave them prior to the lottery pays off or it could begin a nightmare in Toronto that won't end anytime soon.

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