A Gavin McKenna breakout comes with a potential $3.5M cap bill in Matthews' final year

Toronto Maple Leafs rookie Gavin McKenna has some hefty bonuses baked into his contract, and there are implications for Auston Matthews.

While his base salary in his first three seasons is just barely above $1 million, McKenna can earn up to $1 million in Schedule A bonuses and $2.5 million in Schedule B bonuses. He is eligible for these every single season, although both Schedules have very different criteria.

Schedule A bonuses are tied to specific individual performance benchmarks, while Schedule B bonuses are reserved for higher-end league achievements and awards. McKenna can earn up to $1 million in Schedule A bonuses and another $2.5 million in Schedule B bonuses each season.

McKenna does not need to earn the full $3.5M for Toronto's cap planning to get complicated

Given McKenna's status as a rookie, it is more realistic to expect him to hit those Schedule A bonuses. Goals, assists, and points are truly attainable for McKenna, especially if he gets to play in the top-six.

If he does win the Calder Trophy or other awards, then there is a scenario in which the Leafs have to pay out the entire $3.5 million. However, that is the maximum exposure and not the true expectation.

A more realistic scenario is that he develops at his own pace while showing flashes of brilliance. By the end of his rookie season, top-six minutes could be on the horizon, leading to achievable point benchmarks. In this scenario, McKenna would end up making between $500K and $1 million in bonus money. He will only hit that $2 million mark if he has an Auston Matthews-like rookie year.

That said, Toronto does not need McKenna to become an instant superstar for his bonuses to start affecting next year's cap.

Toronto's real mistake would be leaving no room to absorb McKenna's bonuses before Matthews enters his final year

McKenna's bonuses have the potential to impact Auston Matthews' contract year, which goes down in 2027-28. McKenna earning these bonuses doesn't automatically create a cap penalty.

Instead, the Leafs can absorb these bonuses against the current season, as long as enough cap space is available. Only the amount that cannot be accommodated will carry over as an overage.

This means the Leafs will need to manage their cap effectively this season. Analysts will be following to see if the Leafs are operating against the ceiling, relying on LTIR, banking usable cap space, and creating room before the deadline.

Every dollar of McKenna's earned bonuses that Toronto cannot absorb under the 2026-27 ceiling would become a carryover charge against 2027-28, Matthews' final contracted season.

McKenna having a huge rookie season would be a major win for the Maple Leafs. However, the avoidable part would be Toronto managing the cap so tightly that part of the reward gets charged to the following season.

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