Auston Matthews is back, but something about his game doesn't look right
Photo credit: Dan Hamilton-Imagn Images
Toronto Maple Leafs captain Auston Matthews is back in the lineup, he didn't look fully in rhythm, according to TSN's OverDrive panel.
Returning from injury against the Columbus Blue Jackets last Saturday, Auston Matthews' appearance for the Maple Leafs was a welcome relief missing several games with what the team described as a lower-body issue, and looked solid in nearly 25 minutes of ice time.
But TSN's OverDrive panel of Bryan Hayes, Dave Feschuk, and Jeff O'Neill noticed something off about Matthews' game, and discussed on the November 28 edition about what's holding the captain back.
They pointed to one issue they believe is limiting him: His shot doesn't look like it used to.
How Auston Matthews' shot looked different in his first game back
O'Neill had the most criticism about Matthews' shot production as of late:
The one thing that concerns me is the shot. It seems like the shot -- I know he took a couple that were off-balance -- it seems the shot doesn't have the mustard. It's like one in every five has the mustard that it used to.
I recall having several shoulder surgeries, and I remember talking to my dad and he was saying 'Hey, I know you had surgery but something is off with your shot,' but this guy hasn't had shoulder surgery.
So I don't know what the hell is wrong with him or what the injury is, but the shot doesn't have the power. I know it's his first game back but I have big expectations. I don't care how much time you missed, I expect you to come in and be dominant, and be the best player on the ice.
I recall having several shoulder surgeries, and I remember talking to my dad and he was saying 'Hey, I know you had surgery but something is off with your shot,' but this guy hasn't had shoulder surgery.
So I don't know what the hell is wrong with him or what the injury is, but the shot doesn't have the power. I know it's his first game back but I have big expectations. I don't care how much time you missed, I expect you to come in and be dominant, and be the best player on the ice.
O'Neill was direct in his assessment, but he does bring up a very interesting point.
According to publicly available NHL EDGE statistics, Matthews is actually shooting harder on average over the past two seasons, but his hardest shot per game has dropped significantly.
Combining this season (18 games) and last's, Matthews' hardest shot averages out at 88.69 MPH though compared to 2022-23 and 2023-24 you can see a big difference.
It's unclear whether the reduced shot velocity is temporary or simply part of Matthews' return from injury.
In those seasons Matthews averaged 92.78 MPH on his hardest shots. That's a six mile-per-hour difference, and for a player who depends on having a heavy and lightning quick shot -- it no longer matches the top-end velocity he showed in previous seasons.
This is purely an observation and there's no evidence linking his injury issues to being the sole cause of his shot speed reduction.
Why a dialed-back Matthews shot changes how the leafs have to score
So if he can't get back to his previous form, then it's going to be up to everyone else to help out now.
John Tavares has to keep up his torrid pace, and William Nylander needs to keep being the hero during Toronto's darkest times. There has to be a focus on crashing the net because that's where they are most successful.
Of their 76 goals, 38 of them have come directly within the front of the net, and while some are due to elite shooting -- there's a lot that were tips, scrambles in front and rebounds.
Given the size profile of their forwards, net-front play has been a key part of their scoring otherwise they aren't going to be doing much of anything else.
This also stresses the need for a puck-moving defenseman who can help generate offense not only through playmaking but also offer a consistent shot at the blueline who can play into that crash the net style.
If Matthews' shot remains dialed back from previous seasons, then Toronto has to learn to adapt to what they've got and adjust things to accommodate for their captain's inconsistencies.
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