A bizarre 0.3 percent draft loophole gives the Maple Leafs a wild shot at the third overall pick
Photo credit: Rob Gray-Imagn Images
With all the noise about Toronto's pick, it's the third overall that's really confusing, and they only have a 0.3% chance of getting it — and it gets weird.
There's been a lot of discussion and focus on the Maple Leafs and whether or not they are going to get their first-round pick or lose it to the Bruins thanks to a terrible Brandon Carlo trade.
May 5th is still a little bit away, though that doesn't mean the anticipation has dropped any. However with all the attention placed on the Bruins losing their pick, a lot of people are forgetting that there's still a real shot that the Maple Leafs can still get their pick.
Toronto's only way to earn the third overall pick — and it ain't easy
Heck, the New York Islanders made the leap last year to be able to select Matthew Schaefer and honestly, it looks pretty good so far. A top three pick would be great for Toronto, though it comes with one glaring little caveat:
It's weird, and it's all because of the new lottery rules. While there is a draft to determine the first overall pick, so too is there one to determine the rest of the picks.
Toronto has a 0.3% chance of earning the third overall pick after all is said and done, and while it's a monumental stroke of luck to get there; anything is possible.
Here's how things can work out in Toronto's favour and they can end up with the third overall pick:
- New Jersey wins the first lottery
- Due to rules, New Jersey can only move to 2nd, Vancouver still earns the first overall pick by virtue of being the worst team
- Toronto can win the second draw overall, though by virtue of New Jersey winning originally — Toronto slides to third.
- Due to rules, New Jersey can only move to 2nd, Vancouver still earns the first overall pick by virtue of being the worst team
- Toronto can win the second draw overall, though by virtue of New Jersey winning originally — Toronto slides to third.
It's absolutely ridiculous to think that all of this could fall into place so smoothly, but with a lot of luck — they could be staring at a franchise piece.
If Toronto gets the third overall pick, then who do they choose?
So now the dice have rolled in Toronto's favour, so where do they go from here? It's likely that Gavin McKenna is going to be first overall and there's genuine debate over second overall.
It could be Ivar Stenberg, it could be Chase Reid, it could be Caleb Malhotra — or even someone off the board. It's really a who's who of prospects and the top five are going to be stars for years to come.
If Toronto were smart, they would target one of the two defenders who are expected to go in the top-10, that being Reid and Keaton Verhoeff. Either man would give the Maple Leafs their Morgan Rielly replacement and both are fantastic two-way players already.
For some reason, if Toronto ends up with Stenberg as a possible option they should absolutely look at him. Do you want Auston Matthews to get back to the level he was? Give him a playmaking genius in Stenberg and let them run loose.
Malhotra is an interesting pick considering his father is Manny, a prospective NHL head coach who has been linked to the Maple Leafs and could form a wild father-son duo to lead the team for years.
You can't really go wrong, especially if you luck out and get the third overall pick; Toronto would be set for a long time if so.
But with nearly a 0% chance to get it, they are going to need some serious good fortune — and if this season is any indication, they're going to be left empty-handed yet again.
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